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Weak top pair OOP with ICM considerations
Hi guys – Happy holidays!
Long time member, first time sharing a hand! I had an interesting one last night on GG Poker a $5 Turbo that I thought was worth a post to see what others might have done differently or how you would approach such a spot.
(URL blocked)
Summary
Cannot remember exact money jumps but usual payouts for a 200 player tourney or so.
Hero BB with 17bbs (4/6)
Villain mid pos 20bb (3/6)
No real reads/notes on this player although a vpip of 35 is fairly high.
I like the way I left all his bluffs in and tried to minimise the loss/attemp to pot control if I was out kicked etc. Although eventually letting the hand go does feel like I’m playing a bit too passive and exploitable.
I thought it was interesting with 3rd v 4th in chips because it’s an ICM disaster for either of us to bust here, which means he should be more value heavy, although it’s also a good spot to lean on me here.
Anyway, would love to hear from anyone on here who has the time to check it out.
Thanks
(not sure if the link will work – may have to copy and paste into browser)
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9 Replies
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hi @Flynny thanks for posting! It’s awesome to see members posting for the first time in the forums. It looks like your GG link got caught by our spam filter – I’m sure it was a normal link, we just can’t afford the more sophisticated security measures that can tell bad links from good links so in the fight against spam and other bad actors we only let RECing Crew members post links in the forums. You can upload screenshots or PT4 files or other text files etc to share hands – I hope you can give us some details about this hand so we can weigh in. And Merry Christmas, too!
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Thanks for the heads up Jim, I have attached a hand summary image below. Chip stacks at start of hand:
Hero 17.2 (4/6)
Villian 20.5 (3/6)
Payouts as follows ($5 buy in)
1st $165
2nd $123
3rd $92
4th $69
5th $52
6th $39
Hope this tells the story. I will try to get the text transcript for future posts!
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Flynn is a local down here in Australia and we were chatting about this hand the other night.
We have all become low stakes regs on gg.
So…
My take on the hand as played.
Standard defend pre.
I can’t imagine raising pre does much apart from bloating a pot with against a villain who should have more AX in his range which dominate us.
FLOP:
I am still not quite sure who has the nut advantage and range advantage on the board.
We have more 5’s – 45s for example.
Love someone in the recing crew to help with this.
Agree with the check.
Villain bets 1/3 pot (standard sizing that I would suggest for most of villains range).
Agree with the call.
I hate a raise here – villain still has us dominated with a large part of his range.
If we do raise we are hoping he is holding either a pair 77+ or something like JQs, KQs – with a big flush draw.
TURN:
I check here again to the aggressor – hoping for a little pot control at this point.
Old mate bets again.
So by this time I would be narrowing his range down to AX and big spade draws.
I call here again.
RIVER:
We check and he bets 55% into the pot.
Giving us pot odds of roughly 3:1.
We need equity of 25% to call (ignoring ICM)
If we call and are wrong we are left with a tiny stack and will likely bust next.
If we call and are right we become the big stack at the table.
The fact that villain has emptied the clip and fired all 3 barrels.
I am more than likely going to just fold and snap my laptop if he shows the bluff.
If he has 3 barrelled with a worse AX than us, or he fired the last bullet with KQs, KJs, JQs – it has been an unnaturally aggressive play at these stakes and we don’t see that many villains who bet all 3 streets without the goods.
So I fold river in what has played out to be a really awkward hand.
So side note –
Villain shows a 9.
So what nines does he have to take this line?
A complete air ball – unlikely.
99 – I don’t see him firing turn and river.
A9 – is the most realistic from his perspective – he is likely getting raised with better and flatted by worse pre and therefore happy to just lean on you.
Always happy to hear I am wrong folks.
All the best for Christmas and New Year everyone!
Chappo
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I don’ think there’s a need to over-analyze a spot like this, you’re defending with 10.6bb and flop TP. You definitely can’t fold. The only real decision for me is whether to x/shove the flop or let him keep firing and I think I opt for the latter.
Also note that one advantage of the paired board is that it decreases the risk of being out-kicked if he has a hand like AT and an overcard to his kicker hits on the turn/river.
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The screenshot from GG is bit misleading, I finished the hand with 10.6 bigs, started with 17 or so. More interested in the icm implications and whether going for the CL is worth the risk of busting in 6th.
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Flynny…the link is blocked…literally says “URL blocked”.
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I like this hand as played until the river. I think this is an absolutely perfect spot for a small blocker bet. We can get called by worse pocket pairs and many of the Ax hands that do beat us can’t really raise so we can set the price. I’d lead for 1.5bb.
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I have tried to look at this hand using HRC and Flopzilla. I used the Monte Carlo solver in HRC, enabling both ICM and postflop mode in order to create a set of preflop ranges. I then used Flopzilla to look at postflop play. Details/screenshots are in the attached pdf file.
Summary:
BB should defend aggressively preflop with a tight range due to ICM. Almost equally split between 3-betting and calling. Ah8h is part of the calling range.
I think it is quite rare for the BB to have an almost equal split between 3-betting and calling, so when looking at postflop play I turned some of the 3-bets into calls.
The flop gives HJ the range advantage, while neither player has a clear nut advantage. The HJ should therefore bet frequently, while ICM forces the BB to defend quite tight.
On the turn equities run closer, giving the BB a slight range advantage. Also on the turn the HJ has few draws. The HJ should therefore check behind often.
The river depends a lot on how HJ plays the turn when “losing” the range advantage. I therefore did three range breakdowns based on different turn assumptions.
If the HJ continues to bet frequently then the blocker that Chris suggests is very effective. If the HJ checks behind often and only bets a small polarized range on the turn then the HJ can defend vs a blocker bet approx. 2/3 of the time with a range that crushes the BB range. Making the blocker bet less attractive.
As often is the case the river becomes very villain dependent and blocking, calling or folding can all be “correct” from the BB point of view.
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Thanks so much for taking the time to prepare such a detailed response. In real time it felt like a tough hand to play correctly. Interesting to hear the ranges run so close. The river was a tough spot for sure. Made even more intriguining by the card he flashed after the hand. Guess the game is far from solved afterall, onto the next one!!
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