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2 interesting ICM spots including AA on the bubble
Situation #1: 4 left (from 644 runners) in the $80-$50K guaranteed @ ACR
Payouts: $9,200, $5,700, $3,800 & $2,800
Chip leader has 80 bbs and has been open jamming for 2 orbits since we went 4-handed because Hero and 2 remaining short stacks all have 11-14 bbs. V shoves UTG and folds to hero in SB with KQhh. I am obviously crushing his range but with ICM considerations are we better off waiting to be able to force V to call our shove and/or waiting to let the 2 other opponents battle with him. It’s an unusual situation just because we have 3 people with nearly identical stacks and a villain with an enormous chip lead. We are not realistically playing to win the tournament anymore. We are trying to maximize EV and ladder up.
Situation #2: 11 left (10 pay) in a small $200-$15K guaranteed @ ACR
Hero is 5/11 remaining with 22 bbs. We are on the bubble with 3 microstacks ≤ 4 bbs trying to survive 1 more orbit. Chip leader has started open jamming since we got 1 from the money. V jams 50 bbs and all 3 microstacks have folded. Hero picks up AA. We only have 15 seconds left in the time bank and have to make an almost instant decision. Should we ever be folding AA pre for ICM considerations?
Silly side note — Hero folded AA pre-flop on the stone cold money bubble of the WSOP Main Event in 2019 which received some coverage on ESPN and teasing from his poker friends…but it was the right play for sure 🙂
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3 Replies
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Situation #1: Honestly it feels really bad but if they are shoving every hand, we still need to have a really good hand to call with all the ICM pressure in this spot. The decision really comes down to how wide is our opponent in this spot. I ran ICMizer and they said that UTG would shove ~50% of hands and we should only call ATs+, 99+, AJo+. If I widen their range to top 80% of hands, we can then call with KQs/KJs/A8-9s. Ultimately, I’d wait until other spots and be way more open to shove when we are UTG or BTN when we would be able to act before this big stack.
Situation #2: Way different than your main event story. With only 10 people being paid, we have way LESS ICM pressure on us, because if we double up here we have a great opportunity to run away and win the tourney. With very little ICM pressure on us, this is an arbitrary get-it-in spot.
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Situation #2: Definitely not comparing it to the Main Event (was just a silly side note). I think the 3 micostacks make it an unusual spot and worth some discussion when it’s usually a mindless click & fist pump situation. Maybe I am just over thinking it.
I don’t recall the exact payouts but I think every spot was a pay jump because of the small field: 2.5 buy-ins for 10th, 3 buy-ins for 9th, 4 buy-ins for 8th, 5 buy-ins for 7th, etc.
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Situation #2: Your point @TaylorMaas is spot on, though. The value of the double up on the bubble in a large field like the Main Event with a flat payout structure is of little value. ICM pressure is high.
<font face=”inherit”>The double up is of significant value in this spot since it’s a small field and those extra chips give us an enormous advantage over the remaining field to help propel us to victory. ICM </font>pressure<font face=”inherit”> is low.</font>
<font face=”inherit”>What should our calling range be then with the 3 microstacks?</font>
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