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36 left in the Sunday warm up. $54k up top. Do you make this call?
Game Hand #1605599826 – $300,000 GTD Tournament #29247246 – Holdem(No Limit) – Level 35 (50000.00/100000.00)- 2023/03/13 01:41:40 UTC
Table ‘320’ 8-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: PlayNicePLZ (4356199.00)
Seat 2: Tonoferro (4004782.00) is sitting out
Seat 4: Jmoneyallday (1993788.00)
Seat 5: Yaawn (3678296.00)
Seat 6: mildtoxic (5811794.00)
Seat 7: FiveByFive (1712753.00)
Seat 8: WhyDog (2947673.00)
PlayNicePLZ posts ante 12500.00
Tonoferro posts ante 12500.00
Jmoneyallday posts ante 12500.00
Yaawn posts ante 12500.00
mildtoxic posts ante 12500.00
FiveByFive posts ante 12500.00
WhyDog posts ante 12500.00
mildtoxic posts the small blind 50000.00
FiveByFive posts the big blind 100000.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Main pot 87500.00
Dealt to FiveByFive [9d 7d]
WhyDog folds
PlayNicePLZ raises 200000.00 to 200000.00
Tonoferro folds
Jmoneyallday folds
Yaawn folds
mildtoxic calls 150000.00
FiveByFive calls 100000.00
*** FLOP *** [8d Js Ts]
Main pot 687500.00
mildtoxic checks
FiveByFive checks
PlayNicePLZ checks
*** TURN *** [8d Js Ts] [Td]
Main pot 687500.00
mildtoxic checks
FiveByFive bets 412500.00
PlayNicePLZ calls 412500.00
mildtoxic folds
*** RIVER *** [8d Js Ts Td] [Jc]
Main pot 1512500.00
FiveByFive checks
PlayNicePLZ bets 3731199.00 and is all-in
FiveByFive calls 1087753.00 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (2643446.00) returned to PlayNicePLZ
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Main pot 3688006.00
PlayNicePLZ shows [9c Kc] (two pair, Jacks and Tens [Js Jc Ts Td Kc])
FiveByFive shows [9d 7d] (a straight, Jack high [Js Ts 9d 8d 7d])
FiveByFive collected 3688006.00 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3688006.00
Board [8d Js Ts Td Jc]
Seat 1: PlayNicePLZ showed [9c Kc] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Tens [Js Jc Ts Td Kc]
Seat 2: Tonoferro folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
Seat 4: Jmoneyallday folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
Seat 5: Yaawn (button) folded on the Pre-Flop
Seat 6: mildtoxic (small blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 7: FiveByFive (big blind) showed [9d 7d] and won 3688006.00 with a straight, Jack high [Js Ts 9d 8d 7d]
Seat 8: WhyDog folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
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5 Replies
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You definitely have to know your opponent is capable of bluffing. In a $109 I would assume most are. It would help to have a HUD, too. And Roger, look at the picture.
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I do think we have to defend here with 9d7d from the BB. We don’t have much in the way of HUD stats. 61 hands (see image). So we can’t read much into this, but they’re playing a 30/17 (VPIP/PFR). We haven’t seen them reach many rivers, so we can’t read much into their AFq/AF. They are 0/1 taking an aggro action on rivers after taking a line like this.
But we can learn something by looking them up on Sharkscope (which I had already done). They are a high stakes winning player. Avg buy in $171. Avg ROI 10.3%. ~2,000 tournaments. You don’t get to be that without being capable of bluffing.
In the moment, I was completely indifferent. It was clear to me that they had a J, 88, or air. I think Tx raises my turn bet on this wet of a board. The air/bluffs that make sense here are spades, 8x, and a few kinds of 9x. 89 and 99 without a spade would be particularly attractive bluffs. I ended up rolling for it, something I rarely do, came up high and made the call.
As I think about this in retrospect, there aren’t that many EP Jx that open here. AJ/KJ/QJ is probably full, but any other Jx is probably suited (JT/J9). Does J8 even open? But don’t some of those Jx cbet the flop? So there are actually even fewer of them. There are 25 in the middle and we have to call 11 to potentially win them. I think we have to make this call and it would be a mistake to fold here. I’m not entirely opposed to a small blocker bet that we call off if jammed on. We’re targeting the A9s of the world with that blocker.
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