[steve-fredlund]

Quick math tells me it will be about a pot size bet on the river. if you and the BB just flat. I am calling here with the intention of leading about 1/4 pot on many rivers.

* I want to give both players an opportunity to catch up a bit on the river; if they have straight or flush draws we need them to get there to maximize the outcome.

* I want my river bet to look “stabby” or like a blocker bet; I want them to sense weekend then shove over the top.

Unless I am quite sure they will bet both missed draws and value hands (worse than ours like A6), I will lead. I really don’t want to risk a check back here. I want to give the right price for worse made hands to call in case I am bluffing.

[jim]

Definitely weird play by the BB – do you think they call instead of 3betting with JJ there preflop? otherwise we’re behind only the case 66 for the nuts, and there are lots of other hands he can lead with – a 6 which we love obviously, or a weird bluff repping the 6 that probably won’t continue to any aggression anyway so we don’t need to worry about sizing for them, and the presence of UTG still in the hand indicates some strength from there as well so I think a value check-raise is best here in he long run. We started the hand with about 40 effective BBs and I think we should try to get it all in by the end of the hand, targeting Jx hands and better. Yes, it’s transparently a strong play but SO IS JUST CALLING with this action on this board so there is very little deception gained by taking the passive action imo. Might as well get paid by the hands that will proceed with a mostly inelastic calling range.

[fivebyfive]

<div>I’m going to take the counter idea and say we should raise here. It seems like we either have to raise here or lead the river and I prefer the raise now. If we call, we’re hoping to see diamonds or potential straight cards. But if those don’t come, this feels like a hand that likely checks around or that we lead and get two folds.
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When we raise, yes, we’re going to fold out Js, but those hands aren’t where the real value is anyway. The value is the draws, and we can get more out of them now before they see a river. I especially like a small click back raise here. Some aggro players will get annoyed and shove for the rest, while anyone on a draw will think themselves priced in. We may even get a good J to call us at that price.

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[imalouigi]

I did end up raising small to 35,000 value targeting hands with 6x, draws and some stubborn Jacks with Ace & King kickers (most likely UTG). I do think BB has a lot of 6’s in his defend + lead turn range so I’d rather start charging him now and price him in by the river even if he doesn’t improve. Much easier for him to have to call off on the river when he is priced in for less than full pot size bet.

I thought about flatting turn but don’t think I am ever getting raised with this line if I then lead river so I would have to shove river to get max value. I think we have to raise turn to get all of our chips in which is our goal.

FWIW — both folded 🙁

[taylormaas]

A little late to the party but I’m also on the raise the turn bandwagon. My first reaction was raise to 40k, with the intention of pricing in a lot of draws, J’s, and 6’s. I think the majority of those hands that we would try to get paid by on the river will be calling the turn and we can make it two small calls that they will make instead of one big one.

With them folding it just makes me think we weren’t getting paid by anything on the river either.