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99 Against Big Action
The following hand came up during Monkie’s Off Table Tools Group, Jan. 6 ’22 discussion.
What would you do, and why?
Table ‘Daily Casino Tournament MTT 50/100’ 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: monkeysystem ($4200 in chips)
Seat 2: FelixOdenthal ($4425 in chips)
Seat 3: RebekahStokes ($5138 in chips)
Seat 4: KevinBowman ($4750 in chips)
Seat 5: ReubenCalhoun ($5012 in chips)
Seat 6: SamLi ($4750 in chips)
Seat 7: PatrickHill ($4286 in chips)
Seat 8: BeckyClements ($5650 in chips)
Seat 9: RyanAustin ($6789 in chips)
FelixOdenthal: posts small blind $50
RebekahStokes: posts big blind $100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to monkeysystem [9c 9s]
KevinBowman: folds
ReubenCalhoun: folds
SamLi: calls $100
PatrickHill: raises $250 to $350
BeckyClements: raises $700 to $1050
RyanAustin: folds
monkeysystem: folds
FelixOdenthal: folds
RebekahStokes: folds
SamLi: folds
PatrickHill: folds
Uncalled bet ($700) returned to BeckyClements
BeckyClements collected $950 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $950 | Rake $0
Board [2c]
Seat 1: monkeysystem (button) [9c 9s] folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 2: FelixOdenthal (small blind) [Qd Jh] folded before Flop
Seat 3: RebekahStokes (big blind) [5c 9d] folded before Flop
Seat 4: KevinBowman [3h Ac] folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 5: ReubenCalhoun [8h 4h] folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 6: SamLi [7h 7d] folded before Flop
Seat 7: PatrickHill [Qh Ks] folded before Flop
Seat 8: BeckyClements [Ts Td] collected ($950)
Seat 9: RyanAustin [As 6d] folded before Flop (didn’t bet) -
3 Replies
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We had seen the 3-bettor open limp on a previous hand. Otherwise we didn’t have much info on this player.
The way we saw it, we had three options – all bad. Cold calling a 3-bet is usually not a great idea. In this case it would likely work out to be a setmine with woefully inadequate implied odds. The cold call was way to expensive at 25% of our stack. If overcards come on the flop, a very likely outcome, we are in a tough spot against a c-bet that could be a jam. The SPR would be less than 2.
The hand seemed too weak for a cold 4-bet jam. 99 would have to fold out all three villains or it will be in rough shape. It didn’t seem like we had enough fold equity to make this a profitable play.
Which leave us with the remaining option: folding 99. This just… well… it just feels icky. But that’s what we decided on. Was discretion the better part of valor? Or should I change my name from MonkieSystem to Nittiesystem?
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These spots stink, but I tend to mostly fold here. We do have position, but we have to flat for 25% of our stack. And we’ll never know how to proceed on boards that don’t contain a 9. Even a 742 rainbow board is ugly, but one where we likely can’t fold to a cbet, but we can be up against an overpair a lot.
So I’m mostly folding this against unknowns or good players. I’m flatting against players I think are really weak postflop and I’m jamming against players I think are really loose/wild.
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Very ugly, I agree! And I think both you and Chris are spot on. Really deep stacked this might be a set mine, but just as you say, not enough implied odds here. Fairly clear that Becky is committing herself to her whole stack going in here (if she is at least a reasonable player). Very little she is going to fold even to a shove unless she is on a complete bluff. As I’m sure you know, you are a coin toss here at best and roughly 20%-80% at worst. Clearly this would be different if she was simply the opener, but as a 3-bet you have to assign here a pretty strong range.
I struggle with these situations a lot, and I think being able to make this fold is a big step in becoming a competent (or better) player. When I’m playing my A-game I make this fold. When playing my C-game I shove and get knocked out and curse about how bad my luck is!
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