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Blind vs. Blind
50/100
SB has 2600 chips — (Jacob — kekgeek65)
BB has 2900 chips — (The Hero) — T4o
Pot = 200 + antes
The board is J4347 rainbow
The action by the SB was:
— lead 120 on the flop.
— check call 250 on the turn when the board pairs
— check shove a bet of 350 by raising to 2130 on river.
On the Flop
On the flop, the board was extremely dry The villain bets just over half pot. I call with middle pair and a decent kicker.
When the villain leads out on the flop, what are they representing?
— set (33) — 3 combos
I’ve excluded JJ and 44 as very unlikely. The JJ will likely raise PF and the 44 is unlikely since I have a blocker. Obviously, the turn card makes 44 impossible since only one 4 remains in the deck. For 33, I’m not confident that our opponent plays bottom set this way unless they KNOW I’m going to bet when they check turn. The more likely line is to continue betting the turn when they hit a full-house. After all, the BB has already called a flop bet, why not continue?
— two pair (J3) — 4 combos
Does the villain really play this hand pre-flop? I would say that these 4 combos are possible but unlikely. J3 likely plays better as a PFR than as a limp SB vs. BB. If our villain has J3, then betting the flop makes sense, checking the turn also makes sense, but check shoving the river makes absolutely no sense.
— top pair (JT – J5, J2) — 12 combos each
Do all these top pair hands really jam the river? I highly doubt that our villain will re-raise on the river with a hand like JT. I think AJ, KJ, QJ will play more aggressively “earlier” in the hand but limping PF make these hands unlikely.
— trips (54, 64) — 4 combos each
With my 4 and the two 4’s on the board, it’s unlikely the villain has the remaining 4 to have trips. It’s not impossible. The most dangerous ones for me are 54 and 64 because they have a straight draw. If the villain has a better kicker, then it was meant to be. I think A4, K4, Q4 are likely raised PF in a SB vs BB spot.
— straight draws (65, 75) — 16 combos each
The open enders (65 and 52). The villain is more likely to limp (65) and more likely to fold (52) in a SB vs. BB spot. It makes sense for our opponent to bet the flop with a hand like 65 because they have 8 outs to win and there is only 1 over on the board.
The gut-shots (75, 62). The villain is more likely to limp (75) and more likely to fold (62) in a SB vs. BB spot. The 1-gapper is more lucrative than the 3-gapper. I doubt the villain will lead the flop with a hand like 75 because they only have 4 outs. This isn’t a lot of equity and I think checking the flop is more common heads-up.
In-game, I came to the conclusion very quickly that the villain had 65 and rivered a straight. It was the best possible draw on the flop, which our villain bet. After getting called on the flop, it makes sense for the villain to check the turn when the board pairs. The villain should know that the hero has called the flop and can assume the hero isn’t floating the flop and the hero likely caught a piece. The river 7 gave the villain the straight. With the stack size of 2130 chips and a pot size of 940, the villain has close to 2.3x the pot. I expect the villain to choose a larger sizing like (600 – 800) than something like 1/2 pot or smaller if they bet out. The alternative was actually taken when the villain checks the nut straight on the river and goes for a check-raise. With the dry board, the check-raise should work since it’s more likely that the Hero has been playing to the river with a made hand than with a missed draw. The villain can safely assume that a check-raise is possible because the hero might bet the river with a made hand like trip 4’s or top pair. The value ranges of both players are very similar due to the nature of the community cards and action up to the river. However, the BB (our hero) is more likely to still have the weaker top pairs and the gut-shots since they don’t have to fold PF and are last to act. This concept actually widens our hero’s value range on the river making it more likely the hero will have a reason to bet the river when checked to.
Results
Hero called the river shove and the Villain showed 65. Good Game
Aside
Back when Barry Greenstein was a PokerStars Pro, I was in college and playing poker online. One night, I asked Barry which math courses would be most helpful for poker. He responded:
— probability & statistics
— logic
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