Bubble Mistakes More Costly vs. Loose Villain
In my recent Mid States Poker Tour (MSPT) Main Event my tournament ended with a costly mistake. A line check using Hold’em Resource Calculator (HRC) revealed just how costly it was. Furthermore, the mistake was MUCH more costly because my opponent was loose instead of Game Theory Optimal (GTO).
Prize pool = $856,950
Entries = 885
Players remaining = 95
Players to be paid = 90
Min. cash = $2,228
Our stack = 67,000
Avg. stack = 232,895
Our table has about an average distribution of chips. We are the shortest stack at this table. The blinds are 3000/6000/6000.
Our bubble factor is 1.45, giving us a risk premium of 9%.
UTG, who has played a loose style up to now, raises to 2.1bb.
Hero is next to act with ATo. We jam. Action folds to UTG.
UTG KQo. UTG beats ATo after the runout.
Hero is eliminated in 95th place and no payout.
HRC says Hero’s range vs. GTO opponents is TT+, AQ, AJs, KQs. The negative EV of jamming ATo over the top vs. a GTO opponent is -0.16 or $1,371. That’s costly in a $1,110 buy-in event.
HRC says Hero’s range vs. a loose UTG but all others GTO is TT+, AK, AQs. The negative EV of jamming ATo over the top vs. a loose opponent is -0.67 or $5,742. That’s REALLY costly in a $1,110 buy-in event.
Note that mistake is a mistake even if it works out in our favor. If I had doubled up instead of busting out, it was still a $5,742 mistake.
The moral of this story is twofold:
1. Tighten up alot in bubble situations even several places from the bubble. Tighten up even more vs. loose opponents, because loose opponents make our mistakes with a given hand much more costly than GTO opponents do. Of course, there are some exceptions. For example, we can jam very wide if the action folds to us in the SB, even with two blank cards if the BB is calling too tight.
2. This kind of bubble situation is a really important investment in your study time for tournament players.
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