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Chasing a Flush Draw Worked This Time
Disclaimer: I was so overjoyed by the outcome of this hand that I forgot to note the details, i.e. the exact cards, bet sizes, and stack sizes. So here’s what I remember:
Orleans $200 Deepstack.
We have about 50bb and larger than average, though not dominantly so. Villain, who just sat down a few hands ago, has about the same as us.
Villain in LJ opens 2.5bb. Hero in HJ calls with an offsuit Ad9. BB comes along.
Flop comes with a 9 and two diamonds giving Hero second pair top kicker, and a backdoor nut flush draw.
Villain makes a standard approx. half-pot c-bet. Hero calls. BB folds.
The turn is another diamond that does not pair the board, giving Hero more equity. The board is too disconnected for a straight. Villain makes a downsized barrel, approximately one-third of the pot. In my mind at the time I thought I was getting excellent implied odds in case Villain already had a flush. I figured Villain was on a good flush draw himself, or already made a flush. Villain would bet bigger if he had a sizing tell and needed to protect an overpair or something like that. Hero calls.
The river is another diamond, giving Hero the nuts. Villain bets about half of the size of the stacks remaining behind. Hero pretends to ponder a little bit then jams. Villain calls, shows his 8d7d, gets the bad news, and heads to the rail. Hero doubles up to one of top 10% in the room.
I think Villain played this hand poorly.
The downsized turn bet sizing is debatable. I think he should’ve bet more like 75% of the pot. Any hand like top pair with a good kicker or an overpair or better would likely call for this large sizing anyway. An offsuit Ad or Kd would be getting bad odds and likely fold, protecting the low flush. The risk of the bigger sizing is that he could be value-owning himself against a bigger flush that is already made.
When the diamond came out on the river, Villain no longer had a bet. No better hand will fold. No worse hand will call. Then when he get got raise-jammed he should’ve known he was crushed. But he called off the rest of his stack anyway.
What do you think of my analysis of Villain’s play? Was Villain’s turn bet sizing okay? Should Villain make a probe bet on the river to see where he is at?
What do you think of my own play of this hand? Was my preflop call with A9o in the HJ against an unknown LJ open correct? Should I raise instead of call on the flop? Should I be chasing the draw on the turn in a tournament situation with about 50bb effective stacks but not close to the money?
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2 Replies
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Range Trainer Pro says the unexploitable preflop action for me was to fold.
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Using GTO ranges A9o is a fold pre-flop from the HJ. It is, though, right on the cusp (ATo is a 3-bet). If your opponents have not been 3-betting or squeezing very often then I don’t mind a call here. As played I would definitely call the Villain’s c-bet. If we assume the flopped nine was a diamond then on the turn he probably had a gut-shot straight flush draw to go with his made flush. His small bet was trying to extract a little more from you without chasing you away. The Villain’s biggest mistake was betting the river. His strong made hand turned into a bluff catcher. Checking and then calling a reasonable bet or folding to a large bet would have saved his tournament life.
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