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Check Raise Bluffing from the Blinds
I’ve been trying to find spots to check raise bluff to try and bring in some extra pots. I’m finding some opportunities from the blinds when everything aligns well. Here is one that I’d appreciate some feedback on. Am I on track with this, or is it too dangerous of a play?
Ignition $15 Sit N’Go – 9 players, top 3 get $45 each. Anonymous site but my HUD allows me to track players for each tournament. 1500 starting chips. Level 3 25/50 blinds. No ante. All 9 players left. I’m currently 7 of 9. I’m in the BB with 1530 chips and 54 of diamonds.
UTG +1 (1760 stack) opens to 3x (150). Folds to the SB (1634 stack) who calls. I already had the “Fold” button checked, but did a quick look at my chart which said this is a call from the BB. I got in unclicked just in time to think about it. I figured with the extra player in, the implied odds were a little better, so I went ahead and called. An okay call?
Villain (UTG+1) had been somewhat tight (for an Ignition Player!) at 16/9/0 so I gave him/her credit for a strong hand; 77 or better and AQ or better (with maybe some AJ?). However, sample was only about 20 hands. I don’t remember the SB stats but remember he had more typical Ignition stats (lots of limping).
The flop is 2s 5c 2c which gives me a pair of 5s and a back door straight draw. SB checks, I play in flow and check, but with the idea that I might be able to represent a 2 with a check raise. Villain Cbets 150. SB calls. I believe UTG+1 has virtually no 2s or 5s in their range. I’m hoping to knock them off 2 overcards to deny their equity or better yet, a pair above the 5s. I check raise to 550. I did this very much as a pure bluff, even though I understand that I may actually be ahead at this point in time. Hence I’m sure a lot of people would call this a semi-bluff. But my thought was that I was really trying to knock him off a pair. I consider it a bluff because I’m already planning ahead to shove on the turn if the turn is not a Broadway card or a club (or maybe I still would on a club…).
I’m not really worried about the SB. He/she should also I have missed the flop a lot, though I know both a 2 and 5 are in their range.
As per the bet size (550), I would have liked to size it a little larger against 2 opponents, but I felt I had to leave enough behind (830) to have fold equity if i shoved on the turn.
UTG+1 calls the check raise, SB folds.
Turn is the 9s. I snap shove trying to represent that I have a 2. Villain tanks 15 seconds or so and then folds. He/she turns over AA. I got that little rush of having executed a plan and had it work perfectly. To be clear, I would not have tried this on the majority of Ignition players, but somehow I had a read that this player was better than average and could fold an overpair.
As always I try not to be results oriented and review both winning and losing hands. Honestly, I’m feeling pretty positive about this one, but I may be being results oriented even though I’m trying not to be. Any feedback is appreciated.
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3 Replies
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Nice job with creating a plan, executing it, and then getting the desired result.
54s is a 100% call here with or without the SB calling. We’re suited, connected, getting a discount, and closing the action.
As you noted, we have to make our reads based on a limited sample size on Iggy. This play would be a major punt vs the vast majority of the player pool. But since you (correctly it seemed) identified the player as someone playing a reasonable strategy that includes thinking about ranges.
You’ve identified a board where you have a good number of value hands since you’ll be calling with all Suited 2x hands. Versus capable opponents we want to have a bluffing range to incentivize them to call our value hands.
So the question is if 54s should be in our bluffing range. If we bluff every time we’re in this situation (we have more nutted hands vs our opponent) then we’ll be bluffing too often.
Good things about this hand is that it blocks 55 and also has some backdoor equity. But it does have showdown value in that it is currently ahead of unpaired broadway hands (AK, AQ, KQ) that V have.
I took a look EP vs BB in Range Trainer Pro. It did use 54s as a mix between call and check raise.
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I ran this spot in GTO Wizard, using the AI to adjust it to more closely represent your spot. Note that GTO Wizard does not give postflop multiway solutions.
If we disregard the existence of the the SB it gives us a checkraise size of 19.5 big blinds.
However also note that the Wiz makes your 5d4d combo a pure call against the c-bet. You would only checkraise the suit with a backdoor flush draw.
On the 9s turn the Wiz jams only your red 54 combos and 65 combos.
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Thanks for the responses guys. If nothing else this gives me confidence that I’m starting to think about the right things in the right way, even if the moves I’m making aren’t really refined yet. This is a play I never would have considered 6 months ago.
Eric, I agree with your comment that this would be suicide against most Ignition players that were holding any over pair, as most of them cling to it for dear life. But then I realized that a non-trivial number of them would also play this same way with two overcards, including calling down on the river! As we know, it is all about knowing your opponents which we also know is tough on an anonymous site. I think I did get a little lucky in targeting one of the few players who could fold AA there.
Keith, I find it really surprising that the program has us check raise to 19.5 BB off a stack of 30.5 BB. As I noted, had I been deeper stacked I would normally have C/R larger here, but with only 30.5 BB I wanted to keep enough to have fold equity on the turn. I assume when you modeled the hand stack sizes are one of the pieces of information you enter?
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