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Facing a River Lead
Facing a River Lead
When someone has been calling us and suddenly leads on the turn or river, what does this indicate? I’ve used this move in the past when I was worried about not getting any more value for my strong hand. But if V has been betting, why not let him bet one more time instead of risking folding him out of the pot? Then V, knowing this is our thinking process, might use this kind of lead bet as a bluff. But if we’ve been showing strength, how much faith can he have that we’ll fold? This kind of endless loop thinking is actually seeking equilibrium and is why we have solvers.
Take this tournament hand, for instance:
PokerStars – 500/1000 Ante 125 NL – Holdem – 5 players
BTN: 36.28 BB
SB: 49.9 BB
BB: 48.1 BB
Hero (UTG): 27.83 BB
CO: 20.89 BB
5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.12 BB) Hero has 7c 7d
Hero raises to 2.4 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 1.9 BB, fold
Flop : (6.42 BB, 2 players) 4c 8s 8c
SB checks, Hero bets 1.99 BB, SB calls 1.99 BB
Turn : (10.41 BB, 2 players) Ah
SB checks, Hero bets 6.45 BB, SB calls 6.45 BB
River : (23.32 BB, 2 players) 6s
SB bets 6 BB, fold
SB wins 23.32 BB
V could be letting us bet into him on this dry board with anything up to quad 8’s. However, this could also be a busted spade draw.
Running this through a solver, our GTO opening range is AA-44,AKs-A2s,KQs-K5s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s,76s,AKo-A8o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,[50.0]K4s,Q6s,J7s,A7o,K9o[/50.0].
V’s GTO calling range is 66,33-22,ATs-A4s,K9s-K8s,QJs,Q9s,J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,KJo,[50.0]55-44,A3s-A2s,KJs,K7s-K6s,Q8s,J8s,76s,ATo,KQo[/50.0],[33.0]87s,65s,KTo,QTo[/33.0].
First of all, the solver says we should’ve checked behind on the turn. But we aggressively bet. and got called. After locking this dominated strategy with 77 and solving again
When the 6s came out on the river, the solver says that checking is the pure strategy for V. But V lead out 25% pot. Solved even for a river jam but with V’s entire range, the equilibrium strategy had us calling 60%. If we take weak pairs out of V’s range, we would call even more often, though we are still technically indifferent. If we then also remove the bluffs from his range. we still are indifferent and calling slightly more often to maintain equilibrium.
Even with a hand that we shouldn’t have bet on the turn, we would call this lead, even if it’s a jam.
Anyone got any opinions?
A screenshot of the GTO+ solver output is attached.
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