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  • Facing a River Lead

    Posted by monkiesystem on April 1, 2021 at 10:04 pm

    Facing a River Lead

    When someone has been calling us and suddenly leads on the turn or river, what does this indicate? I’ve used this move in the past when I was worried about not getting any more value for my strong hand. But if V has been betting, why not let him bet one more time instead of risking folding him out of the pot? Then V, knowing this is our thinking process, might use this kind of lead bet as a bluff. But if we’ve been showing strength, how much faith can he have that we’ll fold? This kind of endless loop thinking is actually seeking equilibrium and is why we have solvers.

    Take this tournament hand, for instance:

    PokerStars – 500/1000 Ante 125 NL – Holdem – 5 players

    BTN: 36.28 BB

    SB: 49.9 BB

    BB: 48.1 BB

    Hero (UTG): 27.83 BB

    CO: 20.89 BB

    5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 2.12 BB) Hero has 7c 7d

    Hero raises to 2.4 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 1.9 BB, fold

    Flop : (6.42 BB, 2 players) 4c 8s 8c

    SB checks, Hero bets 1.99 BB, SB calls 1.99 BB

    Turn : (10.41 BB, 2 players) Ah

    SB checks, Hero bets 6.45 BB, SB calls 6.45 BB

    River : (23.32 BB, 2 players) 6s

    SB bets 6 BB, fold

    SB wins 23.32 BB

    V could be letting us bet into him on this dry board with anything up to quad 8’s. However, this could also be a busted spade draw.

    Running this through a solver, our GTO opening range is AA-44,AKs-A2s,KQs-K5s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s,76s,AKo-A8o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,[50.0]K4s,Q6s,J7s,A7o,K9o[/50.0].

    V’s GTO calling range is 66,33-22,ATs-A4s,K9s-K8s,QJs,Q9s,J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,KJo,[50.0]55-44,A3s-A2s,KJs,K7s-K6s,Q8s,J8s,76s,ATo,KQo[/50.0],[33.0]87s,65s,KTo,QTo[/33.0].

    First of all, the solver says we should’ve checked behind on the turn. But we aggressively bet. and got called. After locking this dominated strategy with 77 and solving again

    When the 6s came out on the river, the solver says that checking is the pure strategy for V. But V lead out 25% pot. Solved even for a river jam but with V’s entire range, the equilibrium strategy had us calling 60%. If we take weak pairs out of V’s range, we would call even more often, though we are still technically indifferent. If we then also remove the bluffs from his range. we still are indifferent and calling slightly more often to maintain equilibrium.

    Even with a hand that we shouldn’t have bet on the turn, we would call this lead, even if it’s a jam.

    Anyone got any opinions?

    A screenshot of the GTO+ solver output is attached.

    monkiesystem replied 3 years, 5 months ago 3 Members · 3 Replies
  • 3 Replies
  • jim

    Administrator
    April 5, 2021 at 5:47 pm

    Keith you should come to the Saturday Study group next week (April 17th) which will be looking at the Monthly Seminar subject of ‘turns and rivers’ and would be a great place to talk about spots like this, from our perspective and from our foe’s perspective. I love the details you are including in the post, it makes for better discussions and analysis. Keep it up @MonkieSystem !

  • imalouigi

    Member
    April 6, 2021 at 7:38 am

    You also have to consider V’s river sizing. You are getting 5:1 on a call so this bet sizing has little fold equity which is so heavily weighted towards value.

    Checking turn makes your life a lot easier on the river and controls pot size. It also gives V a chance to bluff their missed draws. I very strongly favor turn check back as you should be checking back some of your AX hands for balance.

  • monkiesystem

    Member
    May 31, 2021 at 4:31 pm

    Just listened to the podcast covering this post.

    This weird, tough spot wouldn’t have happened if it weren’t for our overly aggressive turn barrel. Once the ace came out on the turn our hand lost much of its value and we should just be trying to control the pot. However we still had some showdown value, so turning this hand into a bluff on the turn was ill-advised. What better hands are folding? Checking back the turn would have made our river decision easier — and less weird.

    So to add another thought to this thread and to the podcast: This hand is a good example of how the bad effects of a misplay become amplified as the hand progresses. We wound up folding against great odds after investing a third of our stack.

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