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Fold, Call or Raise?
In a recent home game, we were down to 11 players left with 7 players to be paid. I was at the 6 handed table with 33 BBs on the button. The table chip leader had 37 BBs and was the SB. The big blind had 15 BBs and the UTG also had 15 BBs. The HJ had 9 BBs and the CO was the short stack with 8 BBs. I had been card dead for multiple orbits and had lost the chip lead to the blinds and antes. When I looked down at AdKc, I immediately planned to open the pot if it got to me unopened, or 3 bet if an earlier player had opened before me. But the UTG opened for 3 BB, the HJ folded but the short stacked CO went all in. I tanked, and thinking through my options. I decided that calling was the worst option since 1) with two plyers already in the pot, the likelihood of at least one of them having a pair was high, and 2) the blinds were still to act after me. I thought that if I were to raise, I would probably have to raise all-in to discourage those blinds and to force the opener to decide to play for all his chips. But still, I considered again that I could be facing at least one pair and be behind. If I lost, my stack would at least be cut in half. I have mention that I had recently read Jonathan Little’s chapter on tackling a final table in “Excelling At No-Limit Poker”, the current read in Rob’s Book Study Group and thought that we were close enough to the final table for it to apply. Ultimately, I folded. Thoughts? Would it make any difference if my AK had been suited?
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6 Replies
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You were basically going to have to risk 8BB to win around 20BB (the pot after your bet), even with the shove, so an all in here would have the optimal play, suited or not. If either of the blinds call, your EV has just increased exponentially. So the upside of shoving is far greater than folding. Folding is essentially -EV here. CO’s range here being so short stacked is pretty wide. When you shove, the SB and BB have to have premiums to call, as well as the UTG who could call, but will also increase your EV with a call.
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A couple of observations. First of all, it doesn’t matter what happened before this hand. The fact that you were chip leader does not change your strategy in this hand. Secondly, you were not in a heavy ICM situation. In this spot I would be thinking that both the LJ player and the CO ranges were not necessarily very strong. We were four from the money and most are playing to win and not to ladder up. I would jam in this spot 100% of the time. My jam makes it almost impossible for the blinds to come along. I’m willing to take a flip with two stacks that I have covered. My goal here is to increase my chip stack to make a run for the win.
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Here is my take on it. This is one of my first attempts to make calculations like this, so please forgive me (and point out) if I’ve made any significant mistakes here.
You’ve got about 44% equity here against QQ, and slightly more against lower pairs. However, that gets lowered to about 20% if you are convinced both players have pairs. However, if you give the UTG player a standard GTO opening range (12.5%) you have 60% equity against UTG. So against both players you’d have (.44*.60) or 26% equity against both of them. But as Rob says, the blinds have to have a top 5% hand to call off their stacks with. THIS IS ASSUMING THE CO HAS A PAIR, BUT IN REALITY THEY MAY NOT AND THAT WOULD BOOST YOUR EQUITY DRAMATICALLY.
As Rob also said, you’d be calling 8 BB to win 20.5 IF the UTG player folded, so you’ve got 2.5x odds against just the CO. With 44% equity against just he SB you need a little over 2 to 1 odds to be making the right call, and you are getting that.
IF the UTG calls, you are then betting 8 BB to win 28.5 BB or about 3.5x odds. That is not quite enough to call with the 26% equity listed above. However, this assumes UTG calls with all of his/her range which is very unlikely. So you’ve also got a chunk of fold equity to calculate in there (which frankly gets too complicated for me). That probably makes it a call. Or rather, actually a shove to really maximize your fold equity against the blinds and UTG.
Honestly, I often fold in a position like this fearing that if I shove the UTG player will have AA. But I think that fear is unrealistic, and I’m trying to think more analytically like this.
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Thanks for the thoughts. Honestly, shoving never crossed my mind. Inexperience and the short time clock. This might be more inexperience showing, but I try to place as highly as I can in the home games. Rob says the only place that matters in these games is 1st, but I haven’t quite gotten my mind around that and still place value on 2nd and 3rd places or any good cash.
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For premium members who are eligible for the ROI of the month contest cashing is important. The problem is that most players are playing for the bronze pin and the monthly TOC entry. Hard to evaluate the ICM pressure under those circumstances.
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