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Fold the full house?
This is a day 1 flight for the $1M GTD, $215 buy-in on ACR. Hero is above chip average and starts the hand with ~ 600K from 200K starting stack.
I think pre-flop and flop are pretty standard. We could be taking a C/R line on the turn but since we have the board locked, my thought process in game was to give V rope to keep betting as I don’t expect him to be able to call a C/R with many value hands. There are no natural bluffs here so it would just have to be a pure 3-barrel bluff as played which we can mostly discount when he 3-bet jams river.
V’s range is uncapped as played since we have check/called until the end.
Do you take a different line at any point in the hand?
And are you calling or folding river?
4/8K level with antes
LP (has hero slightly covered) raises 16K
Hero defends BB with K4hh.
Flop (35K): Kd 6h 4c
Check/V bets 12k/call
Turn (49K): 4s
Check/V bets 36K/call
River (117K): As
Check/V bets 83K/Hero raises to 183K/V shoves for 425K total (hero has 345K remaining)
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2 Replies
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One question is how LP were they and do you think they have A4o in range pre? This is will definitely start to lean our decision because if they can have A4o, they have far too much value. If they can’t have A4o, then they can only one combo of A4s, KK (3), 66 (3), & AA (3). So that’s 10 combos that probably play this hand as is and find this value raise. If they can have A4o, they can have 3 extra combos.
That’s a lot of value versus a range that just won’t have that many bluffs. If we’re playing some high roller like Chidwick or Koon who may try to turn their suited 4s into bluffs here, maybe we have to call. But I don’t think population is that sophisticated, so the only hand we possibly beat is an overplayed AK. There are 6 combos of that. If we think that is possible, and they don’t have A4o in range, we’re getting the right odds to call. If they have A4o OR if they’re just not capable of bluffing/overplaying AK here, we’re toast. I’m probably folding if I give it enough thought, but may not be able to in-game.
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Nice point @FiveByFive quantifying how many specific hands are beating us here and if we can add in A4o combos, how much more bleak it really is for us in this spot.
I thought it was a fold but was on the time bank … and still in the rebuy period .. and it’s online where we do sometimes see weird hands (not just overplayed AK) that you would almost never see live … so I sigh called. Thought folding and being wrong here was worse than calling and being wrong.
This is probably a leak but it’s a spot I probably can fold live but can’t online.
V did have the AA which makes perfect sense as played.
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