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Folding QQ pre in the Big $7.50
My home game run ended early last night but decided to late register the Big $7.50 on Stars. This hand is later in the session, rebuys are over, and we are rapidly approaching the minimum payout.
Blinds: 350/700
Ante: 90
Remaing players: 170/785
Places paid: 134
Min payout: $12.65
The main villain in the hand is a tight player who has not been that active. We are fairly new at the table but we had been seated with this player before earlier in the tournament. We noticed that he very rarely got to showdown, very rarely re raised and likes to call to see flops.
Pre Flop: Folds to us HJ. We have QdQc. We have 51 506 (73.6BB) after paying the ante and raise to 1540 (2.2BB). The Villain has 55 997 (80BB) and 3-bets from the SB to 5600 (8BB).
Right away we have a decision here. We have just got 3 bet (BIG) from an out of position player who we know is going to be playing a fairly tight, polarized range. So do we flat the 3 bet, 4 bet, or fold? After thinking about this spot I am still not really 100% sure. Flatting seems ok but I don’t want to see an A or a K and face a monster bet. If I 4 bet theres a chance that I get shoved on and be in a pickle (this opponent does cover us) or get no action and take the pot down than (which wouldn’t be bad considering the size of the pot at this point). Folding seems out of the question. I think I need more data on my opponent before I can start laying down overpairs as good as this one, pre flop to a single raise.
Another factor on my mind was all the short stacks in the tournament. I didn’t think it would be a good idea to get my entire 70bb+ stack in on a flip when there was a pile of short stacks still left to bust (half the field had 15bb and less at this point).
In game, I went for the 4 bet. I make it 14 000 to go (20bb) and our friend in the SB insta shoves (5 bets) his remaining stack which has us covered. This was the worst possible outcome and as much as I love my hand, I think for me this is a pretty clear fold. It would be ICM suicide for me to get in all my chips in this specific spot either flipping or completely crushed.
My thoughts keep returning to my 20bb 4 bet. Should I have flatted and seen a flop with a hand like QQ vs a tighter opponent who three bet us from out of position? Did I light 14K of my stack on fire? I’d love to see what everyone thinks of this spot.
At the end I managed to final table this event and managed to get a 5th place finish but if I call here and bust I may have never gotten the chance.. Or I could have won the pot and given myself a betting shot at winning the entire tournament..
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5 Replies
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Our villain doesn’t usually 3-bet.
Our villain has hero covered.Our hero can easily coast into the money.
Our hero has a large enough stack to stay competitive after the bubble.I am not sure if it is correct or not, but I call or fold. I would lean to fold, but not sure I could.
If I call I am almost set mining. I am not looking to get all my chips in without improving on the flop. I might call small c-bet on flop, but another c-bet on turn forces me to fold. This is the reason I would fold pre-flop as I am uninterested in facing more bets.
This is very tight play, but I assume ITM in less than three rotations.
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I also like a call to the 3! in position. Given our position in the tourney and relative stack sizes, don’t really need a coin flip against a chip leader if best case he has AK. Once we see a flop we can evaluate the connectivity and V’s interest and ramp up aggression later once he checks, or like you said sometimes hit a set.
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<div>I like to call in this spot too. If I’m out of position, I’ll likely 4, but in position, I can evaluate on the flop. You said you feared seeing the A or K on the flop, but I don’t mind it. We haven’t overcommitted ourselves yet, and if it comes A or K in a 3bet pot we can navigate toward pot control, especially in position. </div><div>
Once we four and get shoved on this is a fairly easy, if still painful, fold.
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I’d prefer a call of the opponent’s 3Bet here since we are approaching the bubble. I’d assume we are towards the top in terms of chip stacks so we should not try to get into huge hands with other big stacks. So I’d just play a hand in position and try to not let things get out of hand.
If we decide to 4Bet and then get jammed on, I think we should be calling. If our opponent has only AA/KK/AK, we have 40% equity vs that range. We’d have to call ~53 to win ~150 BB so we have the right price if that’s their range.
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With this 4-bet sizing, we should mathematically be calling his shove. There are more combinations of AK which means we are getting the right price even if his 5-bet shove is only QQ+, AK+
It’s a marginally +EV spot so the bigger point is that we can accumulate chips in much better spots, especially using our large stack to lean on dwindling short stacks that don’t want to bubble. Call the 3-bet in position and evaluate.
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