[fivebyfive]

Tricky spot, but I tend to agree with the pro. If you had bottom set, maybe we can find a fold here, but there are enough two pair, pair + OESDs, and lower sets in the value combos that also take these lines that we have to go with it here. Add to that when they do have the straight, as you point out, we still have lots of outs. It isn’t pretty, and your fold did end up saving you in this spot, but I think over the long run we have to take this spot.

[7high11]

I think the truth here is that I fell victim to the ” I drove all this way and don’t want to go home just yet”. I usually only bring 1 to 1-1/2 buy-ins with me and am able to play all night on it. I’m also only able to get to the casino every 3 weeks or so. I was already in for 1-1/2, so losing this hand would have basically ended my night about 4 or 5 hours earlier than I hoped it would.

But in the theme of trying to learn more, would the answer to this be different if 2 of the cards on the board where the same suit? What about if it was monotone?

[elvida]

Couple things. Don’t waste your time telling people what you had. It is just their opportunity to feel superior by making you feel bad about a tough spot. the action was quite strong behind you and even if you SHOULDN’T have folded, in the end you were right (not that we are results oriented). Plus the pro may just want you to call with more speculation later because of outs. Never trust a pro. Not because they aren’t helpful at times, but they may have an ulterior motive. Bring the hand back here or to the discord. We are nice. We are not trying to take your real money. Unless you are at my table at a casino. Then beware… 🙂

The other thing is if you can’t feel comfortable losing a buy in right away when it is the right spot, the game may be too big for you. Dropping three buyins is not unheard of when playing really well. You can take lower variance spots, but then it is probably not worth it to ask whether something was the right play, because the optimal play will likely come with the risk of ruin (for your bankroll for the session). It is hard to add the variable of “its in the first few minutes that I got here” to determine if a play is plus EV. If it is, then the EV you are talking about is not money. It is time you get to play. If the EV IS time that you get to be at the casino, short stack, and only play QQ+, AQ+, and play them aggressively. That will probably give you the most time at the table, as those hands don’t come around very often and you will likely be able to make that profitable in the long run. However, you are a smart, good player that wants to do more than that, so it may be that you will need to manage your bankroll more correctly to feel comfortable if variance does not go your way. In the end, to play well, you CANNOT play with scared money. If you are, you should get up from the table and come back when you are no longer fearful.

(P.S. As with most poker concepts, it is something that I have had to learn the hard way. I like to talk (and in my early days embarrassingly gave away info I probably shouldn’t have) and used to go to the casino under bankrolled. I have changed many of those things to be better, but I am a work in progress on all of these fronts.)

My 2nl.

[7high11]

You are right all all fronts of course, but there is only one I can do anything about. $1-$2 is the lowest stakes offered, and it’s not me that has a problem risking 3 buy-ins, but someone else who has a say in the matter! So that just has to be a limitation built-in for me.

However, I already learned the lesson of revealing what I folded. A half hour later I was in a hand with the very aggressive player noted above. I had pocket kings. He was calling every bet I made. When a flush hit on the river he bet big. I was thinking he was trying to take advantage of the knowledge that I had earlier folded a big hand and that he was using that information to try and bluff me off of one. I called. Turns out he rivered the flush! Another lesson learned the hard way!

[arw]

Years ago, I had a similar spot where I flopped bottom set…the board was connected like this, a tight player raised me, and I quickly folded – correctly 🙂

1/2 NL, live cash, 8-handed

UTG – pro

UTG+1 – very aggressive, not crazy

CO – our Hero (biggest stack = $240)

BB – new to the table, “young guy”

Pre-flop

UTG opens to $7, UTG+1 calls, Hero 3-bets to $25, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop — Tc 9h 8c

BB donks $25, UTG shoves for $65, UTG+1 shoves for $180, you tank.

You have top set (TdTs).

To answer your question, I’m definitely not folding TT here. Not many times in poker do you flop top set with a bunch of all-ins ahead of you. Yes, the board is connected and Yes, they could have flopped a straight (QJ, 76, J7). If they do, you can catch any T, 9, or 8 to improve which is ~7 outs.

To me, it’s very likely that they are drawing. You’re blocking value hands like (AT, KT, QT, and JT) that have top pair and good kicker or with a straight draw. Hands like (AJ, J9) have more combos than hands containing a Ten like (AT, JT). A hand like AJ has ~8 outs to hit the straight however they might also believe that hitting an ace is good (which it isn’t against top set).

Let’s say that any Q, J, 7, or 6 are bad cards to see on the turn or river. This is 16 cards of the remaining (52 – 2 – 3) = 47 cards. This means that 16 / 47 cards or 34% of cards can beat top set on the turn. Reminder, you have 7 good outs (T, 9, 8) that can improve your hand. This means that 7 / 47 or ~15% of the time, you will hit a full-house. This leaves 51% of the deck that shouldn’t help nor hurt you.

Looking at pot odds,

With an investment of $180, I’m taking this chance to win ($101 + 25 + 65 + 180) = $370. You would be essentially doubling up.

Call EV = (%call)[(%win)(reward) – (%lose)(risk)]

Assume that we always call, you risk $180, your reward is $370.

-> (%call = 100%)

-> (reward = $370)

-> (risk = $180)

How often do you need to win to break-even with calling?

Call EV = C[(W * Reward) – (L * Risk)]

0 = C[370W – 180L]

0 = 370W – 180(1 – W)

0 = 370W – 180 + 180W

0 = 560W – 180

W = 180 / 560 = 0.32 or 32% win needed

[elvida]

Happy wife and all that. I certainly understand that concept.

Seriously consider buying in short then (say 50bb)? It limits your exposure on these instances, eases the decisions, and if you double, then you have a full stack with which to play. If you bust, you have another stack (or two) to bring out and navigate. Either way you can play more correctly (also less “scared”). Plus it can make pros wary of you as it can be hard to play against a competent short stacker. Since most of your play seems to be in tournaments on Rec, short stacking would give you continued practice on the important skills in the tournies and the frequency of cards would slow your walk out the door (barring preflop run good/postflop run bad catastrophes). Not buying in for a full stack could mark you as a nonpro, but so what. Use that to your advantage, b/c the fact that you are here (Rec Poker, studying) will make you a better player than many at the table.

Another part of this will be to develop a poker bank roll like you are a professional player. Since the stakes are too high given spousal prerogative, creating a bank roll that the two of you decide is the money you can run up or down will be a better approach than bringing “pocket money.” I have found that when my wife feels that I am not threatening my kids college education, I can spend the money I need to be profitable more easily and not have her face floating in front of my vision when I am taking a thin value spot. Further, when I win, that money doesn’t get spent. It stays in my “roll.” Understand that while I am not independently wealthy, I have sufficient money that playing live regularly would not impact my lifestyle significantly. This is more navigating the house politics related to where expenditures of money occur.

This podcast was done by a friend/coach and I think it is quite good and one of the few on the topic. https://redchippoker.com/for-poker-players-loved-ones/

One other option is always plan to have some other activity that you can do at the casino or along the way as a backup. Seems silly, but I always have a plan (if I am playing live) since my drive is about an hour. Restaurant, movie, six gallon drum of ice cream. Whatever it is I need/want. The alternative gives me something to do and lessens the sting of busting. I play better if I am not folding good spots to the fear that I will hit my stop loss too early. If I am playing online, I just fold laundry or something.

My 2nl.

[imalouigi]

One point that I don’t think have been mentioned is that your small pre-flop raise size does make it more likely for your opponents to be holding QJ (all combos) and 76 (likely just 4 suited combos). If you use a larger 3-bet sizing, it makes it easier to more narrowly define their defend ranges and for you to continue here without a second thought. I would prefer closer to $35 for a pre-flop raise size.

If this was a tournament, you can consider a hero fold because of above. In a cash game this is an insta-call especially with the amount of money already in the pot.

I know it was already mentioned a few times, but if you are not taking spots like this because of not wanting to go bust you are making a big mistake. You would be better off saving up to play when you have 2 or 3 full buy-ins and set that as a stop loss.

[7high11]

Well, it turns out you found a typo in my post! I did in fact open for $35! Thanks for the response!

[arw]

Good point @ImaLouigi

A 3-bet of $35 makes more sense than $25. I thought that was goofy.