[eanderson85]

You are welcome to check my math and reasoning.
Interesting that his 3X 3bet was exactly 1/2 of his stack.
If we call, we are going to have the equity to call the Turn shove, so if we are gonna play, we need to shove here to gain some fold equity.
For someone who never 3bets, he has all the monsters, Straights and 2 pairs everywhere. And he is 3-betting the UTG opener. Very scary indeed.
We need to call 8 to win 22 (3 to 1) Meaning we need 25% immediate odds.
We know we are playing for stacks, so we actually need to put in 19 to win 54 =

35% odds.

Outs: 4 Aces, 4 Tens = 8 outs. We might luck out with our backdoor flush (1%), 2 Kings give us trips, and our 2 pairs might sometimes win, let’s give them all 2 outs to have some cushion (or to be optimistic). 10 outs on the flop has

38% equity.

We have the direct equity, but there is ICM involved. At the beginning of the hand we had 24% of the chips, which is equivalent to having 1/4 of all the prize money. If we go all in and win, we will have 43% of the chips, ALMOST doubling our share of the prize money.
If we fold now, we will have 20% of the chips. Cost of doing business.
If we go all in and lose, we will have 11%. We lose OVER HALF of our prize money, 24 down to 11.
Notice the chips we lose are worth more in $ than the chips we win.
This means we should have an equity cushion of the difference between quitting now and losing, which is 20-11= 9%. We need to add this 9% to our pot odds, meaning we can only call off with OVER 35+9= 44% equity. (12 outs or more)
Our 38% isn’t close.
We have a pretty hand. Top pair-2nd kicker, open ender w/a backdoor 2nd nut flush.
But it’s not near the nuts, and it isn’t drawing to the nuts.
The read says he isn’t bluffing. And if he isn’t 3 betting often, there is no reliable fold to 4 bet stat.
Nobody bluffs enough to be balanced, especially at low stakes.
We aren’t getting the right ICM odds even if he was bluffing enough.
Fold, or shove and later complain that poker is rigged, ACR sucks, and the poker Gods hate me. Which is fun, but doesn’t buy baby a new pair of shoes.
Tough hand. Even after doing the math, it would be hard for me to fold. In real time I would probably call. That’s why poker is my hobby and not my job.
If it was easy, everyone could do it.

[jim]

Oh man I love this reply by @EANDERSON85 and it deserves a reply of it’s own but in the meantime there is this ONE thing that I want to post here because a few people asked me about the term ‘3-bet’ recently and it is worth clarifying:

When we are preflop, the big blind is the ‘first’ bet, so if people limp along they are not making a ‘bet’ of their own, they are CALLING that first bet that the big blind made. So if instead of limping along, we decide to ‘open-raise’ instead, that first RAISE is technically the second bet, or a ‘2-bet’. That works the same way postflop, the person who makes the first bet makes a bet, and if the other person wants to raise instead of calling, that raise is called a 2-bet.

A 3-bet is the THIRD bet, and it looks different preflop and postflop, because there are no blinds postflop. Preflop, the blind is the first bet, the open raise is the 2-bet, and then someone has to RE-raise with a 3-bet. Postflop, if we make a bet and get raised, that raise is a 2-bet, not a 3-bet. So a checkraise, for instance, is a 2-bet. But if you bet the flop and got raised, then your RE-raise would be a 3-bet.

How’d I do team, anything else? It’s a confusing term because a lot of players think it is synonymous with ‘raise’, while it’s more like ‘re-raise’ IMO.

[eanderson85]

It comes from pot limit games where the bet is usually the same. When someone bets, the dealer announces it, 2bet, 3bet, 4bet, because usually there is a limit to the amount of raises.
Sorry about the mishap, I knew better.

[tvstensby]

The ICM calculations above does not seem entirely correct to me.

When performing ICM calculations the percentage of chips a player has is not equivalent to their share of the prize pool. ICM instead assumes that the percentage of chips a player has is equivalent to their probability of finishing first.

The statement “If we go all in and win, we will have 43% of the chips, ALMOST doubling our share of the prize money.” is therefore not correct.

Converting from stack sizes to share of prize pool involves quite a lot of arithmetic, so an ICM calculator should be used. As input the calculator needs stack sizes before/after the hand (for each scenario) and also the payout structure.

Below are the results I got when using the ICM calculator in PT4 and the following distribution of the remaining prize pool: 44.0%, 21.9%, 15.4%, 10.9%, 7.8% (ordered 1st to 5th). I do not know how ACR distributes prize pools, so these payouts are from a similar Pokerstars tournament (final five places in a turbo with ~300 players).

According to my calculations if we fold we have 20.08% share of the prize pool, if we call and win we have 30.11% and if we call and loose we have 12.61%.

When calling we are risking 7.47% of the prize pool in order to win 10.03%. This is equivalent to a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.34, which is the same as 42.7% required equity.

Notice that even if calling and winning results in us having more than double the amount of chips compared to folding (62.8bb vs 27.32bb) our share of the prize pool only increases with 50% (from 20.08% to 30.11%).