[binkley]

One thing I like to think about when faced with a large bet or raise is whether the player is likely to do this with a hand that I’m currently beating. If V is rarely this aggressive with a worse hand, then a fold seems best. If there are some hands in V range that I beat (and maybe even dominate), then that this makes calling likely the better play. In your first example, do you think MP shoves 29bbs with AQ?

Here the range that I would guess for MP: JJ thru 22, AKs, AKo.

I eliminate QQ+, because I think those hands would raise a standard size to get action. AK is the strongest unpaired hand that I think gets open shoved.

Calling 29bbs to win a pot of ~31bbs, we need 48% equity. AKo vs [JJ-22, AKs, AKo] has 46% equity. Based on the given ranges, this is not a profitable call.

Now suppose the shove was for 12bbs. Calling 12bbs to win a pot of 14bbs, we need 46% equity. So at this stack depth this is a break even call.

[7high11]

Thanks. I used to fold this when I thought their range was ahead of AK, but everyone kept telling me that AK was such a strong hand that I should never fold it preflop. I wouldn’t even necessarily put the smaller pairs in a MP shove, which makes my equity even worse, and makes the fold more clear.

[binkley]

AK is a strong hand that is profitable to play. But sometimes it’s fine to fold depending on the action.

We actually should adjust range that would shove for 12bbs. The range would include QQ+ but also hands that AK dominates like Ax, Kx. So overall the range is looser and AK has enough equity to be a profitable call at shorter stacks.

[chappo]

Especially live – i think it is fine to fold AK deep when faced with action like

you open

someone 3 bets

Next player all in.

Obviously depends on Stack Size as Binkley has covered.

Live you can player profile a lot more and players will play with their holdings face up a lot.

In a scenario above – with a certain type of player profile you may either be dead to AA or drawing very thin against KK.

I wouldn’t make it a habit to fold AK without reads and player profiling.

All the best over the Christmas Break.

Chappo

[sirgasleak]

You’re over-thinking it. With few exceptions, committing ~30bb effective with AK is a no-brainer.

[eanderson85]

The question is harder to answer as a call, but as the aggressor you are almost always good.
(URL blocked)

In the book No-Limit Hold’em – Theory and Practice, David Sklansky and Victor Chubukov try to answer the question, “When is it definitely correct to shove all-in with a hand before the flop”. They develop a system by looking at a simple scenario: Suppose I’m in the small blind and my opponent knows my hand. When I go all-in, he only calls when he gets the right odds, otherwise he folds. Which hands can I still go all-in with profitably depending on my stack size?
Each number in each square is your answer for a profitable push from the small blind against the big blind if all players have folded to you.

You can shove all-in profitably:

If you are in the small blind,

Everyone before you has folded,
Your effective stack (in big blinds) is smaller than the number given in this table,
Even if your cards are exposed,
Even if the big blind only calls when he has a better hand.

Limitations of the Sklansky Chubukov rankings

1. Theoretical in nature: The Sklansky Chubukov rankings are only theoretical in nature because of the unusual scenario. They’re mostly there to take away your fear of seemingly too wild all-ins.
2. Don’t move all-in willy-nilly: On a real poker table (hopefully) hardly anyone will come up with the idea of pushing all-in with a hand like A♥ K♥ with 50 big blind stacks. Yes it is profitable, but there are much more profitable ways to play this hand. The rankings only show that a push is more profitable than a fold. A smaller raise might still be the best option.
3. The rankings are too tight: In most realistic cases the Sklansky Chubukov rankings are much too tight. Your opponent simply doesn’t know your hand and will fold many better hands. In situations with shallow stacks it is usually advisable to push much looser than indicated in the table above. If, for example, you hold 8♠6♠, your opponent will (hopefully) not call with 9♥3♠ although it would actually be correct against your own hand. The rankings state you can move all-in profitably with 4.5 big blinds or less with 86s. But in reality you can move all-in with much bigger stacks because your opponent will fold many hands that have you dominated.

[7high11]

Thanks! I actually have a “Nash Chart” app that I study, and I think the concept is similar. But as with your chart, it assumes the other players are “GTO”. Clearly there is a big difference between when everyone else has folded to you and you open shove versus when someone has shoved into you and you are calling off your stack. Then within that scenario there are all the permutations of how big the open shover’s stack is, as that greatly affects their range. That is the balance I am trying to find.