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JJ on a 2-pair board
On a whim, I decided to play in my first live MTT yesterday in just over a year. I finally reached the table at level 3 with blinds at 100-200 with 200 BBA and 20K starting.
My third hand at the table, I’m on the button and get dealt JJ. There were two limps in front of me, I opened to 700, and got calls from the BB and one of the limpers. We see a flop of a rainbow 299 where it checks to me, I bet 1300, BB calls, then the third player raises it up to 3700. I’m taken back a little bit but call it and BB folds; I don’t really have a read on anyone yet but the villain has clearly been stacking it up and looks to have around 50K in chips at this point. In my mind, the possibilities here are he’s on something like A2 and trying to get me to fold an Ace-face hand or he’s bluffing and trying to represent a 9, which with this flop, I don’t see any reason to make that kind of move if he actually is sitting on a 9 and based on pre-flop action I have all QQ, KK, and AA hands ruled out.
The turn is an 8 and he leads out for 4700, which I go ahead and call here. I still feel comfortable with the overpair, and to be honest, my mind frame after this call was that if he really does have the 9 then go ahead and milk me for my stack otherwise he seems to be playing quite aggressive and I’m in a good spot to get max value out of him.
The river is a 2 and he drops a massive overbet that I never really counted, I just collected my remaining 10K and called it. If he’s got the 9 then GG, and if he really did have something like A2 then congrats on the 2-outer.
He ended up turning over T8 to my surprise, and I ended up with the clean double up on this one. During the break, he caught up with me and was curious why I called down with JJ there, and in all honesty, I couldn’t find a fold on a board where I had an overpair and there were no overcards to my hand, to which he chuckled and admitted he’d probably do the same.
With this runout, a fold was basically never an option for me, and the villain’s action here really screamed out as a bluff more than a made hand which made me more comfortable calling it down.
With that being said, is there ever a time where you’re in a similar spot and should find a fold, or is this always a spot where you’re calling it down?
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3 Replies
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First off, I’m so envious you are able to play live MTTs again. Can’t wait until I am able to get back to the tables in my area.
As played, I agree with your call on the river in this hand. Villain bets 10.9K (your effective stack) into a pot of 20.7K giving you excellent odds on the call. You only need to win just over 25% of the time to make this call profitable. The only time it might be a fold is in some rare ICM situations. Just know that villain will sometimes have a 9 here. If T8 is in his range then so are all the 79s-K9s hands as well as A2s and you will lose your stack. Also BB flats your cbet and this will sometimes be a trap with a 9. Remember that early in MTTs chips won have less value than chips lost.
Now, let’s discuss the hand from the beginning. You start the hand with 100bb, villain has you covered and you don’t say how much the BB and other limper have but I will assume they have over 50bb each.
After two limpers, you decide to raise with JJ. There is 900 in the pot and you raise to 700 which I think is a bit low as it gives BB and the limpers excellent odds to call. Perhaps something in the 950-1050 range might be better. After you raise , you get calls from the BB and one of the limpers which gives us a pot of 2600 going to a flop of 992r.
On this flop you are either way ahead or way behind if one of your opponents holds a 9. You bet half pot (1300) and I think you can get the same information with a smaller 25-30% pot bet. BB calls and villain raises to 3700 into what is quickly becoming a bloated pot! To me this is the toughest spot in the hand, either player could hold a 9 and the fact that you still have BB to act after you makes this a very difficult decision – if you call here and BB shoves, and villain folds, what do you do? If villain calls the shove, what do you do? If villain shoves over the top, what do you do? Like I said – tough spot!
You decide to call, BB folds (whew!) and we go to a turn with 10K (50bb) in the pot and you have about 15.6K (78bb) behind. SPR is 1.5:1. Turn is an 8 (not sure if it is a flush card for the board) and villain leads for 4700 a relatively smallish bet and if you make the decision to call here, you are turning your JJ into a bluff catcher and will be committed to calling almost all river shoves. Pot is now 19.4K (97bb). River is a 2 which I think is good for your hand, villain shoves and you call with your bluff catcher.
Congrats on winning the hand this time and hope you went on to cash in the event.
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With 2 limps, we need to be opening larger than 700. It’s important to maximize equity at every spot in the hand and we are crushing the range of the limpers. Every extra chip we can get them to put into the pot when they are behind helps us win more in the long run. It also helps you more clearly define their ranges. When they are getting such a good price to call your under sized raise, ranging their hands is much more challenging. They can have many more combos with a 9 and even some combos with a 2.
Glad that it worked out for you but I think this should actually be a fold OTR without a live read.
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I agree with much of what has been said here preflop. We need to punish limpers and protect our hand. I think this is likely a fold on the river. We have to expect to find a decent amount of complete air bluffs to get to this point and bluff catch. A river bet of this size that is following a flop x-raise and turn lead should lean very heavily toward value. There are very few bluffs on this board and our JJ is a bluff catcher.
It just so happens you found the one piece of value that you beat.
By my count, we’re calling around an ~11k shove into a potential pot of ~41k. We need to win this ~27% of the time.
You caught an 8, and I guess a shove by an 8 is targeting an A, but I think a lot of 8x is checking back and hoping to get to showdown. In fact, I think a lot of 8x is not betting this turn. I don’t think enough of the field is going for three streets of polarized thin value with an 8 (or an A to get someone off a chop?). Basically, we need 27+% of villain’s shoving range on this river to be 8x, 33-77, Ax, or complete nonsense. That has to parlay with them x-raising those hands and leading turns.
I could be wrong, and am certainly rusty live, but I don’t think that will match the live tournie tendencies that I’ve seen.
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