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Late in the ACR Cubed Kickoff ($40k up top)
So here’s the spot. We’re doing fairly well in the Cubed Kickoff on ACR. ($55 buy in and $40k up top). There are around 200 left from a starting field of 5300. I’m second in chips at my table with 51bb. I have KdQd UTG+1 which I open to 2.2 bb. HJ three bets to 6.55 bb from a stack of 40bb. I’ve played with HJ quite a bit. They have a 3bet rate of 12% across 241 hands, and are a very successful/good player (finished 2nd in the last Venom). It folds back to me.
This is a hand that I will most often flat, but sometimes raise and sometimes fold depending on the opponent. I gave a thought to a 4bet against someone who likes to 3bet this much, but I elected to flat out of position. I could also see the case for just pitching this and moving on.
Anyway, we go to a flop, which comes 2s9d10d. 15.4 bb in the pot. We check. V cbets for 5.15 bb. This is a big spot in the hand. I have a lot of equity, maybe enough to justify a raise, but we’re in a weird spot here. Does any of V’s value 3bet range here fold to a raise? I can likely get AK/AQ to fold, but I block those combos, and I think any overpair or obviously 99 or TT finds a call, so I may not be folding out all that much with a raise. I elect to flat and see how V plays the turn.
Turn is the Qh. We could lead this turn, but I elect to check. There is 25.7 in the pot and V has a pot sized stack behind. From that V bets 15.35 bb (leaving behind just 11bb). We have 39bb behind. I don’t think we can possibly fold this, but is this again a flat or a shove? What are accomplishing with a shove here? Can we fold out AQ? I doubt it. So I elect to flat, thoughts?
River is the 8s. There are 56bb in the middle. I can’t imagine we’re winning very often, but I also don’t think we can get many better hands to fold to an 11bb shove? So we check and V checks back AdAh. We lose half our stack.
Is this just unavoidable? Or do we need to fold to the 3bet in this spot? Or find a street to take the lead with our big draw?
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4 Replies
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Yeah, gross result. Obvious this looks bad when he flips over aces at the end and we just let them get value on each and every street, but that’s the unfortunate part of playing poker optimally.
Preflop: This can be a 4-bet in theory. And actually vs a player that we would assume to be very high caliber, probably makes more sense to 4-bet. In practice, I’d almost never 4-bet here and just call the 3-bet and see a flop with the suited broadway.
Flop: I probably would have been toast here. We flop very well and I’d likely be looking to check/raise with this huge draw. You are right though that their range is more compact when they 3-bet us preflop so we do need to adjust for that. But one thing is clear, I’d never fold at this point.
Turn: We can worry about AQ, but we were already losing that hand anyway. The good news is that we now beat AK/JJ/AT/etc. and only hand that we were previously beating that we no longer beat is KJ. If I didn’t fold before, I wouldn’t fold now.
River: Checking is again optimal, we wouldn’t get a better hand to fold, I don’t think. There may be a few hands that we beat but would check behind us. But there will also be hands better than ours that will check. So let’s try to preserve our tournament life with a check.
Sucks that it played out this way but I can’t imagine a way to lose less in this spot. But it sure feels great when he checks and flips over AK or JJ.
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Are you in the money already? Even if not, you are probably close. ICM would suggest you play tighter near the bubble. If after the bubble, people tend to relax and play looser. I thought KQs was always a call, I also thought KQo would be an occasional 4Bet, when it is an always fold.
The pain of possibly folding a straight flush is too high for me. Once I flop a straight flush draw, gutshot with 12 outs or open ender with 15 outs, I’m more than likely seeing the river, damn the odds. I would have played it the same way you did, check raising all-in on the river when I hit 45% of the time.
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I think it’s just a cooler, and you can thank him for checking behind on the river.
I’m not folding KQs preflop to a 3b since it can flop so well, and with effective stacks of 40bb you can end up with a relatively low SPR if you hit a K/Q.
Flop my instinct would be to x/r such a great flop and I actually don’t think it’s a bad move anyway. Even against a range of 99+, AK/AQ, you’re 50/50, and you have a bit of fold equity if he dumps the AK/AQ. Since you’re already ITM (I assume, with 200 left of 5300) and not close to the FT, ICM is irrelevant. I’m happy to take a thin spot for a chance to win a massive pot at this stage.
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