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Live Tell Makes Easy Target of Overpairs
We are in a $1,110 Main Event in the Midwest. Blinds are at 2k/4k/4k. Villain and we have roughly equal stacks, above average at around 250k. We have been playing for a couple of hours together after we were moved to this table. Villain always opens for 3x regardless of stack depth or effective stacks. We have no live tells from villain yet.
Folds to us in BTN. We have KcJh. Bet 10k. SB fold.
BB raise to 24k. We call.
Flop (50k) Js8h6d. BB
BB bet 25k. We call.
Turn (100k) Jc.
BB (sighs) bet 24k. We raise to 50k. BB (thinks for time) call.
River (200k) 2c.
BB check. We ?
The only question here is how much to bet. The SPR is about 0.75.
He has an overpair. His table mannerisms and action triggered by the turned Jack tell us that. Presumably if he had AK he would’ve been done with the hand when we made the small raise on the turn.
Do we jam? Do we bet about 70k in an effort to induce a crying call? Does this opponent’s size inelasticity affect our bet size decision?
Another issue: BB’s small size of the preflop 3-bet made this a trivial call with KJo. Would you call a more healthy 3-bet that came from out of position of, say, 35k? How about a big 3-bet like 50k?
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1 Reply
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I think we can go either way on this. A bet of about 65K will leave him with 20BB that might be enough to invoke a call. On the other hand some people will become entitled with AA or KK and will not fold it even to an all-in. You mentioned that he always opens to 3x regardless of stack depth. He also only 3-bet to 2.4x from out of position. This probably means he is not a studied player which could be another reason to just jam here. If he calls and loses he can tell his friends about the donkey who called his 3-bet with KJo.
As far as the call preflop, I agree that his sizing made it easy to call. 35K might be enough to get me to fold KJo which is, as I like to say, a reverse implied odds hand, but I would definitely fold to a 50K 3-bet.
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