[petvet]

Questions:

Is Day 2 in the money? How many players are left? How fast is the structure? Do we play down to 20 or is it just top 20 stacks that move forward?

Are stacks reset or does your stack move to day 2?

In a true satellite, where all prizes are equal, JJ is an easy fold here, if day 2 is just a continuation of day 1, then we have other options to discuss.

[gibber3]

Is Day 2 in the money? No. When Day 2 starts there will be 80-100 people left and 25 are ITM.

How many players are left? Approximately 45 people left

How fast is the structure? Levels are 20 minutes and are jumping 1k at this point for each level.

Do we play down to 20 or is it just top 20 stacks that move forward? Once they get to 20 runners (which is 15% of the session) OR they run out of the predetermined time allotted. In that case it is the top 20 chip stacks that move on

Are stacks reset or does your stack move to day 2? You take your stack with you to start Day 2.

Thanks for the questions. I wasn’t sure how much I needed to explain but understand these all make a difference in decisions. Part of the reason why I was curious how these should have affected my decision.

[fivebyfive]

Given this situation, we’re still pretty far from real ICM pressure. Even making Day 2, only gives us like a 25-30% chance to cash. So even though it seems like we’re kinda close, I don’t think the “top 20 make Day 2” thing really matters that much. Our attention is really on cashing/winning or not, making Day 2 is just a step in that direction. So given all that, we’re more in chip EV mode than ICM mode here. This is especially true given that we can fire other bullets on other days—so my chips are going in the middle. I’m looking to isolate the original raiser and add to my stack with a strong holding. I don’t want to go multiway with JJ if I can avoid it. Sometimes we get called behind by a monster, but that’s okay in this situation. This is still the point in the tournament where we want to take these kinds of risks. That’s my take.

[gibber3]

I am really glad to hear this take. 😉

I am curious to what PetVet has to add now that I’ve answered her questions.

Also any others…

Thanks!!

[petvet]

This would be an easy 3 bet shove for me as we really have little/no ICM to worry about. At this stage it is really about picking the spots to grow our stack (accumulate) and put as much pressure as possible on our opponents.

[petvet]

Just read the post by @Fivebyfive – couldn’t agree more!

[gibber3]

So after reading both of your very respected thoughts, I feel a lot better about how I played this, although I still believe I did not put the thought into it that it deserved. After the short-stacked UTG shoved for 9k and I saw what I had, my prevailing thought was, “I will jam and I don’t really care if the next two shove (also short stacks) and the bigger stacks will get out of the way.” I couldn’t have been more wrong. The next two DID jam, which surprised me a bit, but when CO asked what my stack was, I got that sick feeling in my gut, and he sure enough called.

UTG K4o

Hero JJ

MP 88

HJ TT

CO AA

The AA held and there were 3 KOs and I was down to 17k.

I lasted two table moves, a double up (which only brought me back around 18k), and two All-in folds before my KTs ran into AA and I was out of Day 1A with about 30 minutes left. gg

Thanks for your input. I only wish I would have at least thought a little bit longer on the “what if the bigger stacks pickup a hand”, but I probably would have done the same thing.

[7high11]

For what it is worth, I’m also shoving here. Specifically because of my chip stack being so much larger than the opener and specifically to ISO raise and get everyone else to fold. What are the chances of there being 4 pocket pairs on the hand? (yes I know we could calculate them, but it is enough to say it is rare!) And, you were dominating 2 of the other 3 pairs!

Just bad timing.

[gibber3]

I do appreciate your input. It helps to know I “instinctively” made the optimal decision, even if I did not actually think about all the possibilities ahead of time. I’m hoping to take that lesson away from this discussion. Slow down! Give the decision the proper train of thought.

Cheers!

[gibber3]

Just got a chance to watch the Forums edition of the Podcast where the wizards (Jim R, Chris J, John S, Kim K, Rob W, and Taylor M) discussed this post. I wanted to thank you all for your insight and recommendations on the hand. You all helped me to expand the bounds of my thinking and I appreciate all that you bring to make RecPoker the best community for this game we all love.

Gibber