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Rewarded for bad play?
This hand happened 3 weeks ago, but I just can’t get it out of my head! $1-$2 live cash. Local casino on a Friday night, mostly regulars, but that doesn’t mean they are very “studied”. A little bit better play tonight than some other nights I’ve described. A little bit less limping and just a little bit of PF 3 betting. Average hand is getting to the flop 3-4 way instead of 4-5 way.
The key to this while hand is a few hands that the main villain has played in the last hour. In 2 cases I had opened $10 (standard) with a strong ace. He called pre. An ace hit on the flop with the other 2 cards to a suit I didn’t have. I bet, he called. In both cases a flush completing rag turned. I checked. He either overbet the pot, or shoved. So in my mind, one of the things he is representing is hitting the nut flush. I know there are a myriad of other things he could have (2 pair, nut flush draw, small set, total air, etc.). Both times I folded with TPTK.
One orbit earlier there were a few limps in front of him and he opened (iso bet) $100. Everyone folded and he showed his KK.
In general he had been playing fairly passively preflop and fairly aggressively postflop. I don’t remember him opening very often, and he had never 3 bet pre.
Now the hand. I have $175. Villain has just less, maybe $165. I have QcTc in in UTG+2. I open to $10. Player to my left calls ($600 behind). It is important to note that he had 3 bet my open twice before, and both times had AQ. Folds around to villain on the Button. He raises to $36. I call, player to may left calls. $103 in pot after rake.
<font color=”rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)” face=”inherit”>Flop is QsJsTs giving me two pair, but crushing the main villiain’s range. I’m first to act. Since the guy to my left had 3 bet pre twice with AQ I figured his flatting range did NOT hit this flop that hard, so I wasn’t worried about him. I’m assuming the button 3 bet with a very tight range because he had not 3 bet PRE in the last 2 hours (unless you consider the iso </font>raise<font color=”rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)” face=”inherit”> over limpers for $100 a 3 bet). But I feel I can discount (not </font>eliminate<font color=”rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)” face=”inherit”>) both AA and KK from his range because of that </font>earlier<font color=”rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)” face=”inherit”> $100 bet. I’m blocking QQ and 10 10 so I can discount them. That leaves his most </font>likely<font color=”rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)” face=”inherit”> holdings as JJ (6 combos), AK (16 combos), and AQ (12 combos). So I am behind 55% of the time (based on these 3 holdings only… I’m even further behind if you count 10 10 and QQ).</font>
But here was my thinking and perhaps where I was totally wrong. I know he is going to bet this board (even with 3 to a suit I think he is supposed to). Based on his history I actually expect him to shove (I could be wrong, but I felt that pretty strongly). I also feel that if I bet he is going to come over the top of me. I’m thinking that if he shoves I’m going to have to call with this 2 pair with 6 outs to a boat. Hence I shove my $140 into the pot of $100 figuring that I might as well get what little fold equity I can out of my hand.
He tanks for about a full minute, then calls. I turn over my cards and he says “only two pair?” The runout are bricks. He takes at least 30 seconds staring at his cards and I think I’m about to be slow rolled. Finally he mucks his cards, stands up in disgust, grabs his jacket and leaves.
When I got home and ran this all through Flopzilla I found I was WAY behind the range I assigned him (like 70%-30%). Was this a stupid play that I just got lucky on, or is the idea that I shouldn’t fold the full house “draw”, even on this scary of a board valid?
My own belief is that I just got lucky, but I’d love some feedback!
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8 Replies
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I always enjoy your detailed post about your sessions at the local limpfest cash table. Thanks for posting.
Preflop:Hero QTs opens to 5bbs, gets 1 call and BN 3bets.
You said $10 (5bd) is your standard and you’ve posted previously about preflop play. We should be tightening our opening range when we are in very early position and using a large size. QTs is the weakest suited broadway. We can consider dropping QTs out of our opening range.
Facing a button squeeze, we’ll split our range between 4bets (value and bluffs), calls, and folds. Being OOP and not closing the action, QTs probably should be a fold.
1/n
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I agree with Binkley on the preflop play. That said, the dreaded “Fold Pre” always left me feeling a little bereft. Further, he posted WHILE I was typing this out (jerk), so I am going to post it anyways. Thus, I will ramble on about some other things that I think were in your post. I had less work today than I thought. (Still way too much, even were I employed by Elon Musk, should my federal overlords be watching).
I think that the one piece of advice that comes to mind (attrib. to Andrew Brokos) is… “Don’t fold to bets that haven’t come yet.” Reads can be helpful, but the cards matter as much as the reads of the players. I feel you made this play despite your cards (you essentially turned 2 pair into a bluff…) Once you get to the flop as played, the bottom line is that in this hand you are playing out of position in a bloated multiway hand with a stack to pot ratio of 1.4 with a monochrome flop and no club in your hand (Say that five times quickly and the Poker Jinni will appear and grant you zero wishes…it probably is not surprising that the Poker Jinni can be a jerk). Yes, you have a made hand and outs, but you have TWO people to act after you and TWO cards to come. You have neither the nut nor range advantage on this board. Donking into two players OOP on such a board rarely is the best play.
Further, this board scares the hell out of EVERYONE. Except maybe K9cc and Axcc. So, save for one of those two hands, the players may be more cautious than you think (and as such, see Brokos Wisdom above). I would check and see what develops. However, if you are unwilling to fold this hand no matter what (i.e., I FLOPPED two pair on this STINKING board and I am GOING to SHOWDOWN) then by all means jam and pick up whatever fold equity you have, but consider that a check-raise may look stronger. If, no matter what his holding, villain-McJammyJam is going to jam (jammers gonna jam, am I right?), then check/fold lets you play on (Garth) rather than taking the lonely walk back to the car or to the cage. However, you have to accept that with this hand you have a good chance you will lose money; either what you put in the pot already, or if you are behind, or get drawn out on. (Enter lecture here on the philosophical underpinnings of The Art of Losing in Poker Without Losing Your S&%$).
Results oriented, you gained a lot of information on this player. He must have called with some draw (since he lost), so what does it matter what you have. It is a weird comment. I wouldn’t listen to him. To make money at this game you have to make plays others don’t, which will open you to “ridicule.” EMBRACE IT! Be CRAZY JOHN. The mild- mannered MANIAC on the felt. One, it’s a lot of fun, and two they’ll call you down when you bet with your value. Even if it is a suboptimal play, advertising that chaos makes you harder to play against. That said, this is where poker arguments get fun. People can tell you that you “got lucky” but that is determined based on what your opponents will do. Some of the most “heated” arguments get going over some form of the following statement “Do you really think the villain will fold (call/raise/jam) in that spot?!?” Prediction to human nature is fraught (FRAUGHT I TELL YOU) and as a result there is no answer to any of these questions that is actually “right.” Uncertainty is part of the game. People (like Yamel) get their AA cracked all the time, but that doesn’t mean that if you win with KK, you should feel badly that they were lucky in that spot. Refine your game and revel in your luck. The money you win is worth the same.
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2/n
You made the observation that V had not 3bet, unless you consider the big iso raise vs limpers with KK. It’s important to remember that at a passive table the opportunities to 3bet are minimal.
Flop: QsJsTs (Pot $100)
Hero (QcTc) has two pair with $140 behind.
Now we need to range BN V.
My assumption is that V is not overly loose. My guess for squeezing is TT+, ATs+, AQo+, KQs.
Hero is ahead of AA (6 combos) KK (6 combos), AQ (8 combos), AJs (3) ATs(2), KQs(2) Total 27
Hero is behind QQ (1), JJ (3), TT (1), AK (16) Total 20
Notice that V only has 1 hand AcKc that is a made flush on the flop. The monotone flop being all broadways reduces the number of flushes in a 3 bet pot.
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3/n
You had previous hands with the caller, V2. Based on this you discounted TPTK (AQ) hands. I think it’s a big mistake to ignore V2. This is the player that is most likely to have a made flush. 3bettor range has the big pairs and strongest suited broadways. V2 has all the weaker suited hands, As9s thru As2s, 98s,87s,76s.. maybe even some KsXs.
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4/n
Now we need to think about hero’s range. Facing a BN squeeze are you flatting QQ? JJ? AKo? AKs? Are you calling with a lot of suited Ax? 98s, 76s?
Knowing the answer to these questions will let you know how strong QTs is in your over range.
If our hand is toward the top of our range we need to consider continuing with it.
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5/n
Let’s talk pot odds.
Pot is $100 and hero has $140 left in his stack. Main V had $10 less to start, so the effective stack is $130. If V jams, the pot would be $230.
Pot odds = risk/(risk + reward)= 130/(130+230)= 36.1%
We would need 36.1% equity for the call to be break even.
I had assigned V squeeze range as TT+, ATs+, AQo+, KQs.
Using an equity calculator like Equilab, we see that Hero has 37.6% equity. This would be a slightly profitable call. EV = +$5.You had given V a tighter range and estimated you had 30% equity. If this is more accurate then calling V jam would be slightly losing. EV would be -$12.
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6/n
With 2 pair and an SPR of 1.3, Hero decides that he needs to go with this hand.
Hero decides to jam”….figuring that I might as well get what little fold equity I can out of my hand.”
We really need to examine this line of thinking. When you jam, are you folding out hands that are beating you? Does he fold straights (AK), sets (QQ, JJ, TT)?
Against a jam, does V call with hands that are behind? Hands like AJ, AT?
By jamming, we likely only get called by hands that beat us and fold out worse. V can play perfectly. If we take a check call line, we can get V to bet worse hands.
Let’s calculate the EV of the jam.
In the squeeze range, I assigned to V (TT+, ATs+, AQo+, KQs) there is a total of 48 hands.
V calls with overpairs, sets, flushes, straights, pair+OESD, pair+ nut FD.
AA(6), KK(6), QQ(1), JJ(3), TT(1), AK(16), AsQh, AsQd, KQs(2). Total 37
V folds pairs with no FD, folds with no OESD
AhQh, AdQd, AhQd, AdQh, AcQd, AcQh, AhJh, AdJd, AcJc, AhTh, AdTd
Total 11
When Hero jams, V folds 22.9% (11/48) of the time. Hero wins 100% of the $230 pot.
Versus V calling range, Hero’s equity has 27.3% per Equilab.
Total EV = Portion of pot when V folds + portion of pot when V calls – bet amount
= 22.9% x $230 + 27.3% x $360 -$130
= -$1.5
Jamming and folding out V weaker hands turns it into a minus EV play.
Compare that to allowing V to jam his entire range where it’s +EV.
(editted to correct EV calcuation)
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Thanks guys for the detailed replies. I really didn’t think I played the hand well, but couldn’t put my finger on exactly where or why. Knowing that it actually started pre flop is something I never even looked at. Eric’s idea about calling his (predicted) jam (letting him bluff) versus jamming myself is also something I never considered. The only thing I thought I had to gain was getting him to fold a straight on the idea that I had a flush, but I think in retrospect that is “wishful thinking”.
Also never heard the quote from A. Brokus that Joe added which is also good food for thought.
Well, it brought me back to being “up” for the night, so I’m at least glad it happened!
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