[taylormaas]

I tried viewing the video but it was showing up extremely choppy. So I’m not sure what your stack size was, just saw you fold JJ. Honestly, it all comes down to the field size that you are playing in. ICM is the number one thing we should be concerned about here, and what is the value of your stack currently, what it would go to with a win, and what it goes to with a loss.

Without knowing the exact numbers, I can tell you from experience that you are not going to double your ICM value with a win, and a loss will put your value to $0. So you need to be putting yourself in a spot with >50% equity (and likely >60%, or even 65%) in any spot you take here. So a fold is definitely not out of the question. Calling and trying to play post flop is an option, but a smart player will apply aggression know that you would be at risk of bubbling the tourney.

All-in-all, folding is good. In this situation, I’d much rather get it in with 30% equity after cashing than getting in with 70% equity before cashing.

[taylormaas]

So after seeing some other comments come in, clarifying where you were at with your chip stack, I think we should almost exclusively be calling here.

I think shoving is a disaster, when we get called, its only by better and when we don’t get called, its such an insignificant increase to our stack that it was not worth the risk.

Folding is not out of the question. If we are on the exact money bubble, this just guarantees us to make the money — which is obviously good. My original comment was assuming we are a short stack, which if we are too short and the opener can apply a lot of ICM pressure to us, its probably best to just get away.

Calling is best, I think. If we call, because of the stage of the tourney, others are not incentivized to play against us. Likewise, the original opened SHOULD be avoiding playing a huge hand with us here (We could put a big hurt on them too!). So its very likely that when we call, we can play optimally in position and play a small pot. In which case, JJ will do well when we are essentially running our equity against one opponent.

[7high11]

Understand that I’m normally seeking advice, not giving it, so take this with a grain of salt. I could see the video clearly. You have the 3rd largest stack at the table with 24 BB, and are just barely behind the second stack. The small stack behind you only has 5 BB. With it just being a min raise to 2BB to me, I would have definitely called. Even if the small stack shoves behind I’d be calling that for 5 BB. Admittedly, I would likely have folded after the flop when there was a bet on an AQ flop, and maybe that is what you were trying to avoid to begin with. But my own humble opinion is that with 25BB you don’t have to play quite so tight on the bubble as if you had a below average stack.

I do also recognize that the opener was one of the 2 stacks larger than yours and that they are clearly the opponents you want to avoid on the bubble. I would have called it and ended up folding to the bet after the flop, but still been left with a 22BB (above average for the table) stack.

I’d be interested to hear other replies!

[elvida]

My understanding is that it depends on a few variables. 1) The payout structure, the flatter that it is, the more it makes sense to play tighter as there is less incentive to take risks as a medium stack. 2) The range of stacks remaining in the tournament as this will change the value of the chips remaining in your stack and what you are risking by playing risky and 3) Your desire to win the whole thing versus min cashing what you think is a low buy in tournament

The first two can be calculated, the third is just a personal preference. I think if you decide to play you should just shove and take advantage of the fold equity or be off to the races.

[binkley]

I would have folded JJ in this spot for several reasons. Opener is UTG and covers us. It is the stone cold money bubble. Busting here out of the money would be a disaster. With a large field, the bubble will not last long.

Calling would invite either a multi-way pot or a squeeze which are tough spots to navigate.

[flynny]

3 bet to something like 5.5bb and put the pressure back on him. If he folds, you win, if he calls you can play in pos with a premium hand, if he shoves you can assume he has you beat and can lay it down (or gamble it up and call even). Surely with this risk adverse mindset it is going to be difficult to run up a large stack and give yourself a good shot at a deep final table finish. My question is 1) what would you do with AKo (as I think these hands are about the same in strength) and what would you do if 20 people from the bubble? I think a min cash shouldnt be on your mind with 25bb and a good aggressive player will look for these spots to lean on others and pick up chips.