[fivebyfive]

I’m probably just getting it in here. Yes, sometimes we’re beat and I agree SB’s range is fairly snug, but there are probably more nut flush draws in there beyond the pure combo KcJc. I think SB can have a few more hands. AcXc seems likely. Some of the other KJ combos. It does stink when they have 55, but that’s only 3 combos and I’m ahead of everything else except KcJc. If I’m not prepared to get my stacks in here when I flop top two, I’d much rather 3bet it pre to avoid this spot in the first place.

[hawkplays85]

Flush draws seem more likely than sets to me. So, if we aren’t going here it sure seems like the villain gets to just raise us and take the pot on any flush draw board. There is one combo of QQ, one of TT, three of 55, otherwise you are ahead. Would they have squeezed with QQ pre? I would think they have ATx-Jx, KQx , K9s+, Q9s+ J9s+, A2s-A6s, ATs. I’m not sure how far the suited connectors go down but I’d say at least T9s, 89s, but not sure about gappers like T8s. Then all the pairs up to 77 at least in my mind from the little info we have in the forums about both players. 88+ just seem like good 3 bets with the limos so far preflop.

They may have 55 for the set, but it’s more likely they are on a big draw or pair plus bd draw. I think there are straights that may do this J9s, AJx, 89s, and the nut flush back door, as well as king and j high flush draws.

They do have a lot of equity and probably have a lot of fold equity if you have been thinking about it this much. While I’d feel slightly better with QTh I think it’s a call or shove…and I would rather charge the draws if they want to come along.

That’s my best analysis without doing a full flopzilla breakdown which my apartment is doing Maintence so I only have mobile internet access and can’t do right now. If you want to go over the hand fully on flopzilla I can get on discord later and it could be fun.

[bug920]

Thank you for the detailed input. I’m not on discord. I believe i have an account but never really learned how use it. I’m old like that lol. Some of the hands you’ve placed in the V hand i had already discounted based off of preflop action. He is def 3betting QQ OR TT from the sb in that config and so i eliminated those 2 combos. This player is more likely then not to squeeze any suited ace from the sb as well. He plays mostly 3x or fold from there and with my button call and his choice to only call, i took the ace high flush drawl out as well.

Full disclosure, the table was so soft i felt the risk was not worth the reward tangling with the only player that could come close to stacking me an hour and half in. I did end up tank folding and he turned over suited J9 for the open ended str8 flush draw

Of corse after seeing that i wish i had called and seen what developed on the turn but kept coming back to the slight chance that im dead to 4 outs.

Had the turn been a brick my belief is he would have checked, skewing his hand to more of the monster combo draw, and i would have barreled. But my hindsight is perfect 😳

I’d be interested in what flopzilla says. If you need any more info on the hand to run it just let me know.

Thanks again.

[hawkplays85]

I am (hopefully) playing in games all day today, so I can’t run flopzilla with the client. However, it looks like you think you had a good read of their preflop range so if you sent me the range you think they had I can tinker with it more in flopzilla as a wind down or tomorrow.

[mezzodana]

Hey Bug920! I can understand the tough fold given you had had the exact same scenario with the exact same player previously. Not only are you haunted by that, you’re thinking do I really want to reload or add-on or walk… The meta of this hand goes deep! Ultimately, I think I would have called, personally, bc there are only few flops where I’m folding two pair.

[bug920]

Cool, i had the original UTG raiser with AA-KK or AK and maybe AQs i realize it’s the narrow of narrow but this guy practically plays face up. As for small blind, in game i only started considering his ranges after the flop. After flop i started picking apart his range with the flop action. Knowing him , in that spot preflop he is only completing with pocket pairs as low as 22-88. 9’s + he’s 3 betting. Same as i mentioned with most suited aces, and will complete with the worse suited aces 2,3,6,7,8,9. All others would (or are normally raised by him in his spot) mid suited connectors would be a call for him as would higher 1 and 2 gappers.hes not playing off suit connectors or gappers. I believe he raises with two suited broadway as well there, but if has the same read as i do on UTG I could see him just calling there 10% of the time as well. So it’s more of a range eliminator for him.

I appreciate the conservation and consideration

Best of luck today. My normal poker room isn’t open Mon and Tues, so my week starts tomorrow.

[bug920]

Btw, UTG has a 250 stack, sb is 600. A nd i cover them at 670. Not sure if flopzilla uses stack size

[hawkplays85]

Here is a word document with visuals because I think it will be easier to understand than me labeling all the images and uploading them separately.

HH.Bug20.241119.DJ1_.docx 200 KB Word Document - Click to view

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[bug920]

I really appreciate you running all of this out for me. In game my only thoughts were jam or fold. But as i said after thinking about it for over a week I started to debate if a call was the right play here.

I believe even if the brick turns and I jam that he would be calling with proper odds and range. Looks like he d be calling 360 into 930 on the turn, needing something like 28% equity. Even if he puts me on a set of 5’s hes got 14 outs. Its actually a lot closer then i thought. looks like both options are viable….. ah well, thats why i love this game

After breaking all of this down I do believe i will be nit calling when something similar to this scenario comes up again.

Thank you again for going over this with me. Hope you ran well today.

[bug920]

and another thought just entered my mind. if I make that call and a disconnected club comes i can have all the Ax c so the rest of that hand may shut down after my flop call unless 8 or K of club hits, or a I boat up…. Ok, I should have called the flop lol

[ep1ct3tu5]

Hi.

For what it’s worth, I’m stacking off here. Granted I’m predominantly micro-low stakes tournament player and can appreciate nuances between cash/tournament play, but in a vacuum I’m getting it in here.

My initial reaction was KJcc/J9cc/55 at a push, however, I think the flopped set plays slower (I could be wrong here given the texture of the board).

This is why I appreciate hand history reviews because often at times I tie myself up on over analysing a spot and take the passive approach, hyper focusing on the combos of hands that have me beat and fold, or I take an emotive stance and snap make judgement calls. Controlling my emotions at the table can frequently get me into trouble but on occasion also contribute to me making the correct call in some spots.

I prefer to get it in on flop as I think there’s considerable turn cards which may kill us. That thought process could be flawed and appreciate any of all respective feedback.