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Recap
1100/2200/275 – 9 handed
Pickles has ~41 bb
Wavy has ~18 bb
5×5 has ~48 bb
Pickles opens to 2.2 bb, Wavy calls, 5×5 raises to 7.5 bb. Both players call.
Pot (24.5 bb)
Flop — Qc Kd Ks
Checks around
Pot (24.5 bb)
Turn — Qc Kd Ks Td 4s
5×5 checks, Wavy checks, Pickles bets 5.7 bb, Wavy folds, 5×5 calls
Pot (36 bb)
River — Qc Kd Ks Td 4s
5×5 checks, Pickles bets 11 bb and 5×5 folds.
I don’t recall playing with Pickles so I’ll assume he/she is an ABC player who isn’t out of line.
For me, I think your sizing was off pre-flop. With 2 potential callers, I would probably raise bigger than 7.5 bb. More like 9.0 bb. That being said, you are called by two players and the terrible flop of KKQ hits. You have AA out of position and the initiative. You check, Wavy checks, and I think it’s important to note that Pickles decided not to bet the flop. The turn Td was a bad card as it put a flush draw and straight draw on the board. You check and Pickles bets 1/4 of the pot. With AA, you still have outs to hit a big hand. I would think that the remaining 2 aces and 2 kings would be good cards for you to hit on the river. You need to win 20% of the time to be profitable so I don’t mind a break-even call. The river is a blank for any flushes and 4-card straights so it is likely a blank for Pickles. He continues betting 11 bb on the river. The hero 5×5 can only call if Pickles is betting hands like (AQ, QJ, JT, and JJ) on the river. The hero should fold if Pickles has hands like (AK, KQ, KJ, KT, QQ, TT, and J9) in their pre-flop calling range. Folding AA on this board is likely correct with this action.
That being said, you checked the flop with a way ahead or way behind condition. In my opinion, I like to bet the flop instead of checking for a couple of reasons. Pickles voluntarily bet on 2 consecutive streets, invested over 1/3 of his/her stack on this hand, and gave you good odds to call those bets. If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, I would say “duck”.
Lastly, an alternative line for you on the flop is to c-bet. This should help define your opponents hand and give you a chance to win. C-betting should keep Pickles range more honest and deter him from floating with hands like QJ and JT, even though you want those hands calling the c-bet, it’s easier to justify folding when Pickles is more likely to be trapping by calling than to be chasing by calling. Sometimes, it’s easier to get rid of the rif raf early. Betting the flop also give the rif raf hands an opportunity to call when they are behind. If they end up turning the rif raf into a bluff, good for them. Most won’t. Steve might 🙂
