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  • eanderson85

    February 15, 2021 at 12:23 pm

    Pot is 3,951 (~4000)
    The bet is 1,976 (~2,000).
    OSU has 19,597 in his stack (~20,000)

    If OSU wants to 3bet even as small as 2.5X to 5,000, that will make the pot with one caller 14,000 and he will have 15,000 behind.

    If he wants to chase his draw for another card, he has a very awkward bet size.
    Half pot will leave him 8,000 to bet into 28,000 all-in on the river, leaving his opponent pot odds to call with a 30% equity hand. That’s great the 35% of the time he hits his draw, not so good the other times he has 9 high.
    If he is going to raise here he has to shove, maximize his fold equity, and realize his hand equity.

    If he min raises and gets shoved on, should he call 16,000 to win ~45,000???

    If he calls, will he be all in by the river anyway with no chance of getting his opponent to fold? Best case scenario calling: call 2,000 flop leaving 18,000 behind, call 4,000-6,000 on turn leaving 12,000. Fold River with half of your stack 2/3rds of the time.

    As a general rule, if you want to raise and have less than 10 times the bet in your stack, you should go all in. Chances are that you are getting it all in by the river anyway. Why throw away your fold equity?
    It is still possible to win the pot right now.
    When everyone folds you add 30% to your stack. That is a great outcome.

    The bet sizes just don’t work out on future streets unless you plan on folding in the future. If you’re going to do that, fold your open ender now and stop the bleeding.