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400/800 + 80 ante
EP opens 2.3 bb and you flat the button with KhJs, the bb also calls.
Flop – Kc Ts 9s — (8.2 bb)
bb checks, EP cbets 4.1 bb (half pot), you call with top pair and gut shot, bb folds
Turn – Kc Ts 9s Ks — (16.4 bb)
EP continues for 9.2 bb (56% of pot), you call
River – Kc Ts 9s Ks Qh — (34.8 bb)
EP overbets for 46.8 bb, you fold
Possible hands that beat your KJ:
KQ, KT, K9, TT, 99, QQ, AJ
Only the Kd is left, this means there are 3 combos each of (KQ, KT, K9).
With the J blocker, there are 12 combos of (AJ)
The sets (TT, 99, QQ) have 3 combos each.
Total combos = 9 + 12 + 9 = 30 combos
Some hands may have pushed you off a chop,
(KdJd, KdJh, KdJc, 9 combos each of (JT, J9, J8))
Total combos = 3 + 9 + 9 + 9 = 30 combos
Hands that you can beat:
AA, AK, AQ, T9, QT, Q9
There are 6 combos of AA.
With the K blockers, there are 4 combos of (AK)
There are 12 combos of AQ however I think this hand is very unlikely.
There are two pair (T9, QT, Q9) combos however the K on the turn killed that action. That being said, these 9 combos each of (T9, QT, Q9).
Arguably, lets say
— 30 combos beat you
— 30 combos chop
— 10 combos lose to you
According to the numbers, this looks like a pretty clear fold.
— 12% of the time you are ahead (none of this range would play this way)
— 42% of the time you chop (some of this range would continue betting)
— 42% of the time you lose (all of this range would continue betting)
Good fold!!!
