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So this is a board that I want to check a decent amount as the in position player, but when I do bet, I want to bet bigger. At 60bb effective, if I do bet, I like 75-80% pot bet. I think we can go either way with JJ, but I’d lean toward a bet. Checking back more of my AA-QQ. And betting bigger with JJ-88. I like this bet size on “big blind” boards like this because it is much less comfortable to check raise us as a bluff with this sizing.
When I run this in GTO Wizard, if we bet 83% pot, V can really only raise <10% of their range, when we bet 33% pot, V can raise 18-20% of their range. We have a hand that can either try to play a small pot or take control with our value, but we don’t want to go in between (IMO). So I don’t mind the flop bet, but I don’t love the sizing.
This larger sizing also often buys us a free river card or the ability to barrel on favorable turns (like this K!). With the turned second flush draw on board and us holding neither a spade or diamond, we have the PERFECT big barrel turn card (because we don’t want to block our opponent having spades or diamonds). And if we bet bigger on the flop, we’re more likely to get to make that kind of play.
With our small bet facing a xR/lead, I do think we have to find the fold.
