-
Thanks for the response! Your math, is of course, right on the money. But without knowing the villain I feel I have to add for the fact that not everybody (at least where I play) is going to be shoving with a flush draw, even the nut flush draw. I know that for a fact because I, whether right or wrong, wouldn’t be doing it. This of course makes everything “villain dependent”, and when you don’t have a good read on the villain you have to just rely on the math. But I was factoring in for the average player in the player pool at this casino, not the poker population in general. As we’ve discussed before, the play is much more passive than what might be expected from the games that we study. I know from experience (often painful experience!) that the vast majority here is only shoving with the nuts or near nuts. I know this, because as I’ve said, the cultural norm here is for people to show their hands even when not called! And yes, people show both the nuts and their bluffs. (There was even a big argument that same night about one guy showing his hand and the other guy not returning the “courtesy” by showing his hand.) Nuts, I know!
Now clearly this villain was willing to do it without even having the nut flush draw. I’m also sure that the BB and UTG players would do it. But my guestimate is that half of the people in this room would not. So let’s just say that were true (even if you have a hard time believing it). Wouldn’t it be correct to discount the number of nut flush combos by roughly 50%
