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6/n
With 2 pair and an SPR of 1.3, Hero decides that he needs to go with this hand.
Hero decides to jam”….figuring that I might as well get what little fold equity I can out of my hand.”
We really need to examine this line of thinking. When you jam, are you folding out hands that are beating you? Does he fold straights (AK), sets (QQ, JJ, TT)?
Against a jam, does V call with hands that are behind? Hands like AJ, AT?
By jamming, we likely only get called by hands that beat us and fold out worse. V can play perfectly. If we take a check call line, we can get V to bet worse hands.
Let’s calculate the EV of the jam.
In the squeeze range, I assigned to V (TT+, ATs+, AQo+, KQs) there is a total of 48 hands.
V calls with overpairs, sets, flushes, straights, pair+OESD, pair+ nut FD.
AA(6), KK(6), QQ(1), JJ(3), TT(1), AK(16), AsQh, AsQd, KQs(2). Total 37
V folds pairs with no FD, folds with no OESD
AhQh, AdQd, AhQd, AdQh, AcQd, AcQh, AhJh, AdJd, AcJc, AhTh, AdTd
Total 11
When Hero jams, V folds 22.9% (11/48) of the time. Hero wins 100% of the $230 pot.
Versus V calling range, Hero’s equity has 27.3% per Equilab.
Total EV = Portion of pot when V folds + portion of pot when V calls – bet amount
= 22.9% x $230 + 27.3% x $360 -$130
= -$1.5
Jamming and folding out V weaker hands turns it into a minus EV play.
Compare that to allowing V to jam his entire range where it’s +EV.
(editted to correct EV calcuation)
