-
Analysis
16% to win against 6.78% of range when opponent has a made flush.
64% to win against 42.98% of range when the opponent has a flush draw.
??% to win against calling range, assuming he doesn’t re-raise the flop
100% to win against folding range
Should you raise, call, or fold AK?
Let’s put some numbers to this hand,
You both start the hand with $750 after pre-flop action. You have AK on an AhKhQh flop, your opponent checks, you bet $25 into a pre-flop pot of $50, and your opponent raises to $100 more.
- You can fold. Stack size would be $725. Losing a bet of $25.
- You can call. You’ve invested $125 with 2 more streets to go and only $625 left in your stack. The Pot Size would be $300.
- You can raise. You would be raising an additional $625 and offering pot odds of ((625 + 300)/(625)) or about 1.5 to 1.0. This has a break-even of 40% win needed for them to call the raise and profit from you.
- Which of the villains hands will call our raise?
- made flushes
- this is only 6.78% of the starting hand range
- we win 16% against this range. Bad Shape 🙁
- flush draws
- It’s fair to say that not all draws will call. Let’s assume that maybe 1/3 or the (Q, J, T) high flush draws will call and the others (9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2) high flush draws will fold to a re-raise. This would be 1/3 of 42.98% or about 14% of the starting hand range.
- we win 64% against this range. Good Shape!!!
- two pairs
- same hand (AK)
- there are 4 combos of AK possible to chop with us on the AKQ flop when you have AK. “Everyone loves a chopped pot”
- worse two pairs (AQ, KQ)
- There are 6 combos of AQ and 6 combos of KQ possible when you have AK on the AKQ flop.
- we win 92% against this range, assuming they don’t hit the two outer.
