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  • arw

    July 9, 2020 at 12:18 am


    16% to win against 6.78% of range when opponent has a made flush.

    64% to win against 42.98% of range when the opponent has a flush draw.

    ??% to win against calling range, assuming he doesn’t re-raise the flop

    100% to win against folding range

    Should you raise, call, or fold AK?

    Let’s put some numbers to this hand,

    You both start the hand with $750 after pre-flop action. You have AK on an AhKhQh flop, your opponent checks, you bet $25 into a pre-flop pot of $50, and your opponent raises to $100 more.

    • You can fold. Stack size would be $725. Losing a bet of $25.

    • You can call. You’ve invested $125 with 2 more streets to go and only $625 left in your stack. The Pot Size would be $300.

    • You can raise. You would be raising an additional $625 and offering pot odds of ((625 + 300)/(625)) or about 1.5 to 1.0. This has a break-even of 40% win needed for them to call the raise and profit from you.
      • Which of the villains hands will call our raise?
        • made flushes
          • this is only 6.78% of the starting hand range
          • we win 16% against this range. Bad Shape 🙁
        • flush draws
            • It’s fair to say that not all draws will call. Let’s assume that maybe 1/3 or the (Q, J, T) high flush draws will call and the others (9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2) high flush draws will fold to a re-raise. This would be 1/3 of 42.98% or about 14% of the starting hand range.
            • we win 64% against this range. Good Shape!!!
          • two pairs
              • same hand (AK)
                • there are 4 combos of AK possible to chop with us on the AKQ flop when you have AK. “Everyone loves a chopped pot”
              • worse two pairs (AQ, KQ)
                  • There are 6 combos of AQ and 6 combos of KQ possible when you have AK on the AKQ flop.
                  • we win 92% against this range, assuming they don’t hit the two outer.