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What % win is needed to break-even when our opponent calls only 25% of the time?
Fold EV + Call EV = 0
Fold EV
= (0.75)(300)
Call EV
= (0.25)[(W)(925) + (L)(-625)] where L = 1 – W
= (0.25)[(W)(925) – (1 – W)(625)]
= (0.25)[(W)(925) – (625 – 625W)
= (0.25)(925W + 625W – 625)
= (0.25)(1550W – 625)
Total EV
(0.75)(300) + (0.25)(1550W – 625) = 0
225 + 387.5W – 156.25 = 0
387.5W = 68.75
W = 0.1774 or 17.7% win is needed
When they fold more often, we need to win less often.
