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  • arw

    Member
    July 10, 2020 at 12:07 am

    Hero has 77 in the big blind and 85 bb effective.

    After the pre-flop action, there is 9 bb in the pot and it’s 3 ways.

    The flop is (9d 8d 5s)

    The small blind leads 9 bb and gets two callers. (VERY INTERESTING)

    The turn is (9d 8d 5s 2s)

    The small blind bets 36 bb. Both players fold.

    ___________________________________________

    This board is very connected and draw heavy. Your opponents could have a wide range pre-flop since they got in cheaply until you spoiled the party with your squeeze to 3 bb. The flop action tells us a lot.

    • The small blind bet full pot into two people who have better position. We can assume this isn’t a complete bluff.
    • The big blind (you) flat called a full size bet with another player behind who could potentially (fold, call, raise).
    • The button called a full size bet and is willing to play the turn against two players, the button didn’t raise the flop.

    This flop isn’t ideal for 77. It’s painful to fold 77 on this flop because you have a draw to the nuts but here is why I would fold and not call 9 bb :

    • The # of safe cards on the turn and river. What cards do you want to see where you think your pair of 77 is the best hand? You don’t want to see any diamonds, you don’t love it when the board pairs, you might not want to see another 7, and you don’t want to see any broadway cards like an A, K, Q, J, T.
    • The Pot Odds. You opponent led 9 bb into 9 bb. This means you have 1:1 odds and need to win 50% to break even.
      • Pocket 7’s is 62% to win against (3d2d) for a flush draw.
      • Pocket 7’s is 60% to win against (6d2d) for a flush draw and straight draw.
      • Pocket 7’s is 46% to win against (AdKd) for a flush draw w/ over-cards.
      • Pocket 7’s is 23% to win against (9s8s) for top two pair.
      • Pocket 7’s is 23% to win against (5c5h) for bottom set.
    • The # of players. Calling this potentially “spewy” bet is easier when you’re heads up. In this case, you have another player behind. You don’t know if they like the flop because they haven’t acted yet. Do you want to invest 9 bb with 77 and then watch the button correctly raise their 98 two pair?