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I am loving all these replies! @Binkley I agree hands that miss the board will not call any river bet, so they are folds anyway – nothing we can do about that. But we are playing with someone we just had a conversation with about this exact spot, so we are 100% in exploit mode here and value betting, not bluffing – we want to get CALLS in this spot by worse hands, not force them to fold (in my opinion). I am basically treating the money in the pot as mine already with top pair on this runout. And the times that the river makes me a loser will be outweighed by the times I make a little more in the pot because he makes a worse pair or decides to bluff – even if that doesn’t happen very often. Keep replying folks, I love thinking about this stuff and I know I’m wrong as often as I’m right! What am I missing?
