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  • binkley

    July 10, 2020 at 5:46 pm

    ARW – another impressive combinatorial breakdown.

    Set combos – I think both AA and 66 are unlikely. AA would 3bet and 66 would likely fold facing flop and turn bets. Assume 1 out of 4 AA/66 combo reaches the river.

    Total set combos: 8

    Flush: I had the Ac. That leaves sb with 35 flush combos

    Straight combos: 15

    Total combos that beat me: 58

    Two pairs: Removing more of sb combos decreases the chances that a call is good.

    Remove the most unconnected hands, 84,J6, and J4: 49 two pair combos

    But as played, assume that A8 and A4 would raise either on the flop or turn.

    Now we are down to 37 combos I beat.

    So 37 / (37+58) = 39%

    Equity needed to make the call break even is 330/(330+660) = 33%

    Would this player bet with a worse 2 pair or only a flush or straight?

    I really didn’t know in the moment….