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ARW – another impressive combinatorial breakdown.
Set combos – I think both AA and 66 are unlikely. AA would 3bet and 66 would likely fold facing flop and turn bets. Assume 1 out of 4 AA/66 combo reaches the river.
Total set combos: 8
Flush: I had the Ac. That leaves sb with 35 flush combos
Straight combos: 15
Total combos that beat me: 58
Two pairs: Removing more of sb combos decreases the chances that a call is good.
Remove the most unconnected hands, 84,J6, and J4: 49 two pair combos
But as played, assume that A8 and A4 would raise either on the flop or turn.
Now we are down to 37 combos I beat.
So 37 / (37+58) = 39%
Equity needed to make the call break even is 330/(330+660) = 33%
Would this player bet with a worse 2 pair or only a flush or straight?
I really didn’t know in the moment….
