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The 9 bb, 21 bb, and 26 bb stacks have 16%, 37%, and 46% of the chips in play respectively. When the prize pool is $425, $305, and $175, this next hand has a pay-ladder of $130.
According to ICM,
- The 9 bb stack is worth ~ $245
- The 21 bb stack is worth ~ $320
- Th 26 bb stack is worth ~ $339
The action:
- The flop is As Qh 8s
- You have Qc8c for bottom two pair.
- On the flop, you lead for 2.5 bb into 4.5 bb and the big stack shoves.
With bottom two pair, you lose to:
- sets (AA, QQ, 88) — where combos are (3 + 1 + 1)
- two pairs (AQ, A8, Q8) — where combos are (6 + 6 + 4)
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</div>With bottom pair, you’re ahead of:
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- one-pair aces (AK, AJ, AT, A9, A7) — 12 combos each
- gut-shots (KJ, KT, JT) — 16 combos each
- flush draws (KQss, JTss) — 1 combo each
After looking at these ranges, the value range has ~21 combos and the bluffing range has ~ 110 combos. To me, this makes it very very difficult for me to lay down Q8 on this flop. This seems like a cooler that I just won’t get away from very often. There is some merit in folding because Q8 two pair is the absolute bottom of the value range on this board and if you’re beat, you likely have few outs. The drawing hands have between 4 – 12 outs to beat you on the turn and river.
- Q8 vs AA is drawing dead
- Q8 vs QQ is drawing dead
- Q8 vs AQ is drawing to an 8
- Q8 vs A8 is drawing to a Q
Last comment,
If the big stack is competent and playing for the win, he/she may be using “leverage” to force extra folds because he/she understands ICM and how to push people around. The idea is to apply pressure and force opponents to make a decision for all their chips. With lots of money on the line and time invested, most people don’t take marginal spots. The big stack may be raising wider and because he/she knows that mind is on the $$$. If my opponent is making this play, this might impact whether I shift to a call or fold.
This is a great hand to take a look at. After thinking about it…I’m confident that you would see me at the WSOP Main Event tanking at least 5 minutes and then eventually laying it down. The big stack applies pressure well and it makes Ideally, I would want to conserve chips, stay in 2nd position, and apply pressure in a better spot.
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