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Results:
*** RIVER *** [Tc 3c 5s Qs] [Ts]
Hero : Bets $2.81
CO : Raises $9.88 to $9.88
Hero : Calls $7.07
CO : Showdown [Ts Td Tc Ad Qs] (Three of a kind)
Hero : Showdown [Qs Ts 9s 7s 5s] (Flush) wins $27.29
In game, I called. My thinking was that I lose to full houses and better flushes. Value target was only trips. It seemed too thin in the moment.
However, I now think that I should have raised. On the turn there are two flush draws. Sets and 2 pair would very rarely (never?) check the turn. This rules out full houses.
Picking up the extra equity of a back door FD, V likely bets the turn. This reduces the number of made flushes. As3s and Ks3s are the most probable FD check backs. This is only 2 combos.
Making our BD flush makes the strength of hand a bit hidden. We have a lot of Tx that could take the same line (call flop cbet and lead river with trips). V could call river 3bet with their strongest trips.
