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  • arw

    July 14, 2020 at 4:04 pm

    2/5 No Limit

    Effective stack is 270 bb.


    Hero has As3s in the Cutoff and makes it $40 or 8 bb pre-flop.

    Villain is a maniac and calls on the button.

    Pot Size = $80 = 16 bb


    The flop is 3h 4h 3c.

    Hero checks

    Villain bets $45 or 9 bb.

    Hero check-raises to $145 or 29 bb.

    Villain calls $100 more.

    Pot Size = $80 + $290 = 16 bb + 58 bb

    Pot Size = $370 = 74 bb


    The board reads 3h 4h 3c Kc.

    Hero checks

    Villain bets $200 or 40 bb.

    Hero check-raises to $575 or 115 bb.

    Villain calls $375 more.

    Pot Size = $80 + $290 + $1150 = 16 bb + 58 bb + 230 bb

    Pot Size = $1520 = 324 bb


    The board reads 3h 4h 3c Kc 8c

    Hero checks

    Villain bets $800 All In

    Hero calls $800 more.

    Pot Size = $80 + $290 + $1150 + $1600 = 16 bb + 58 bb + 230 bb + 320 bb

    Pot Size = $3120 or 624 bb


    Pot Odds

    • On the flop, the villain bets 9 bb into 16 bb giving pot odds of about 2.5 to 1.
    • On the flop, the hero check-raises to 29 bb giving pot odds of about 2.2 to 1.
    • On the turn, the villain bets 40 bb into 74 bb giving pot odds of about 2.8 to 1.
    • On the turn, the villain check-raises to 115 bb giving pot odds of about 2.5 to 1.
    • On the river, the villain jams 160 bb into 324 bb giving pot odds of about 2.0 to 1.


    Value Range

    • 44 — this hand flopped a full-house. This hand should feel confident that willing to enlarge the pot size.
    • 43 — this hand flopped the 2nd best full-house. I don’t see the villain calling 8 bb pre-flop. The 4d3d and 4s3s are likely candidates for the pre-flop call. They should feel confident and willing to enlarge the pot size whenever possible. This hand also might not re-raise the check-raise because it isn’t “the nuts” and calling the check-raise conceals hand strength.
    • AA — this hand has the best two-pair. It should be confident most of the time that it’s ahead but I expect it to AA the brakes after watching the check-raise action. I’m not confident that AA is even possible with the given action on a paired board.
    • KK — this hand has a strong two pair that turned into the best full-house. Based on pre-flop action, I don’t think this hand is in the villains range. That being said, KK is one of my favorite hands to slow play but I’m not sure that I will make this play on the Button.
    • K4 — this hand is a semi-weak two pair. It can beat some but not all combos of two pair. It’s also one of those hands where strong players know to slow down because it can’t beat AA.
    • 88 — this hand is possible but unlikely since a ton of money went in on the flop and turn. I don’t think this hand ever sees a river.
    • A3 — the best possible “trips and our hero’s hand. It’s very unlikely that the villain also has this hand.
    • worse trips — this hand will likely love the flop and try to get some value. Only the strongest kickers will likely go for 3 streets of values. Weaker kickers are harder to judge but I assume that most will not go all 3 streets.


    Bluffing Range

    • The bluffing range is likely very small.
    • The flop has two hearts which make a flush-draw possible. This draw missed and our opponent still bet 160 bb on the river.
    • The turn and river completed the runner runner club flush. If the villain has this draw, then he/she likely has some kind of combo draw. The board has very few combo draws that make any sense.
    • None of these flush draws can contain a “3”. They can’t have trips and a flush draw. I personally think this makes a flush draw a lot less likely. The most dangerous flush draws are Ac4c and AhKh.



    Key Points:

    • Against the value range, A3 is behind 21 combos of full-house (44, KK, 88, K3) and ahead of 6 combos of any over-pair like (AA) and ahead of 12 combos of any weaker trips like (Q3, J3, T3, 93, 73, 63, 53, 32). In other words, most of the value range is beating us on this board. We only have a few outs if we’re beat. The risk is HIGH and reward is HIGH.
    • The double check-raise is not a <u style=”font-style: italic;”>normal play. It likely takes perfect conditions and probably happens during a cooler like:
      • Ace high flush vs. King high flush
      • Large full-house vs. Small full-house
      • Trips w/ strong kicker vs. Trips w/ weaker kicker
    • The hero definitely over-valued their hand. The action and board texture kind of screamed “full house”. The value range is mostly composed of full-house combos and only a few bluffing hands. In my opinion, the double check-raise unnecessarily bloated the pot with a semi-strong hand. In No Limit, I would play this hand using a little more pot control. On the turn, the pot size changed from 74 bb to 324 bb!!
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