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  • fivebyfive

    July 17, 2020 at 10:37 am

    This is an interesting hand. Of course, we can be up against the dreaded AA, but I’m generally 4-betting this hand this deep. I like lowering the SPR on future streets and I think we can be called by worse often. Once we get to this flop, I’m much less interested in bloating this pot and likely calling. Monotone flops tend to disincentivize this kind of raise. My first choice would be a call here, in part because if I’m holding AdKd, I’m also still calling. My raising range is very narrow here, most likely just any sets or weaker flushes I can show up with. In this spot, the hands that we’re beating that call are underpairs with diamonds, AK/AQ/AJ with a diamond, and some sticky underpairs with no diamonds. I think we’d be lucky if anything but QQ fell into that range. So I like the call to keep in more of those hands that I beat and if a 4th diamond shows up, well so be it, I haven’t invested that much.

    The turn card is ugly. I’d argue after the large flop raise, V should be checking their entire continuing range, so I’m not sure how great that is for you. A lot of the range that you were previously beating and that called is now beating you (AK/AQ/AJ with a diamond). The range that we’re targeting by shoving and hoping to be called is QdQx, JdJx, maybe TdTx. That is far too narrow of a value target for this large of a shove. We’re more in bluff catching mode than let’s get stacks in mode. So I would be checking back this turn and hoping that we can check through clean rivers. If V shoves a non-diamond river after our check, we’re in a tough spot, but I’d rather make that decision than shove against a range that is beating us pretty often.