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Let’s look at an opponent profile that most favors a call.
- SB preflop calling range includes all AXo, any two broadway cards, AXs thru JXs, suited connectors and suited one-gappers.
- SB plays two pairs and sets aggressively on this draw heavy flop. So SB would check raise your flop bet with QT, Q8, T8, 88, etc..
- SB plays draws by check calling (never leading or check raising).
- Facing your flop bet, the pure draws that SB continues with are open ended straight draws (KJ), all A high and K high flush draws (AsXs, KsXs), medium strength flush draws with gutshots (Jh7h, 9h7h, 7h6h) and gutshots with backdoor flush draws (Js7s, 9s7s, 7s6s)
- SB has a polar betting strategy on the river with a betting range of value (sets [22], trips [8x] and straights[J9]) and bluffs (missed draws), and checking hands with showdown value (single pairs and A highs).
SB value hands that all beat you: J9, A8, K8, J8s, 98s, 22
16+4+4+1+1+3= 29 combinations
Bluffs that you beat: KJ, KhXh, Jh7h, Js7s, 9h7h, 9s7s
16+5+1+1+1+1=25 combinations
25/(25+29) = 46%
Holding 33, you are winning 46% of the time. This is more that the 33% equity that you need to break even by calling a 1/2 pot bet.
If you don’t think your opponent fits this exact profile (on the flop raises draws, flats two pairs, folds gutshots and backdoors, bets single pairs on the river), then a call becomes less profitable.
