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Just my two cents worth. We all know that any of my advice should be taken with a grain of salt! But since so many people respond to my posts I thought I’d give it a try. For the most part on a paired board with high cards where the pair is the highest card, I find that a small bet will knock out everyone that doesn’t have one of those two cards, a pocket pair, or a draw. With a rainbow flop there is no flush draw here. So if my bet gets called I know I am against one of these. The only straight draws are 9 10, 10 Q, and AQ.
The turn is particularly tough here since it does complete a straight, and pairs with a higher card than yours that would have called with a straight draw (AQ). However, you can argue that either of these are not in their range after just completing from the SB). I would choose to make a big bet here (3/4 pot?) to find out where I stand. It is going to fold most underpairs. If I get called I’m now likely chopping or behind. They now most likely have a K, Q or J, or A 10. I may even fold out a few weaker Js.
If I get called here I’m never leading the river, and am quite often folding to a bet. I just don’t think there is much I am ahead of. I guess the only thing that could change my mind of course, is a J on the river! Now I’m ahead of AQ and A 10 (if they even got here). But I’m still behind any Kx which I think makes up the majority of their range, along with a lot of Jx
When they suddenly lead out on the river, I believe at best I am chopping the hand. I likely would have ended up calling here real time on the river and lost, but still had some chips to play with. Having had time to analyze it, I think it is a really hard fold, but a correct one.
