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One way to approach this spot is to ask if your opponent would make this river bet with the best hand that you beat. So holding AJ on this board, do we think that someone holding A8 make this river shove? Since I don’t think that A8 would, this makes me lean toward a fold.
Going to the river, the pot is 15.35BB. Opponent jams for 14.7BB. Equity needed call is 14.7/(14.7+15.35)=48.9%
Opponent value hands that beat us are:
Sets: AA,TT, 99,QQ
Two pair: AT, A9, AQ, T9, QT, Q9, A4
Discount A4 based on large turn bet.
Straights: KJ, J8s
Top pair, top kicker: AK
Value Combos:
Sets: 1+3+3+3 = 10
Two pair: 6+6+6=18
Straights: 16+4=20
TPTK: 8
Total: 56
Bluffs with no showdown:
FD: Ks8s, Ks7s,Ks6s,8s7s
OESD: 8h7h,8c7c,8d7d
The opponent would need to be bluffing with hands that have some showdown value. Assume that top pairs get checked and middle/bottom pairs get bluffed.
Middle and bottom pair with OESD: QJs, JTs, JJ, J9s
Middle and bottom pair with FD: KsTs, Ts8s
Middle and bottom pairs with gutshots: KK, KcTc,KdTd, 98s, 88
Bluffs Combos:
FD: 1+1+1+1=4
OESD: 3
Middle and bottom pair with OESD: 3+3+6+3=15
Middle and bottom pair with FD: 1+1=2
Middle and bottom pairs with gutshots: 6+2+3+6 = 17
Total Bluffs: 41
41/(41+56)=42.3% < 48/9% needed for a break even call.
It’s a fold.
Since most solid players aren’t turning pairs into bluffs, there will be way more value than bluffs. The equity of calling will be way less than 42%.
