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Very interesting spot for sure. I love having bottom set here b/c it unblocks a lot of top pair and two pair hands we are ahead of. I think the problem is that once front door flush hits on the river, the pair and two pair hands that didn’t get there (even straights) would want to slow down. I think I fold given the river sizing and its just an unfortunate runout. It would have to be a very loose player that overvalues one pair hands for me to call. Here is what I think of the ranges
Flop: He didn’t raise pre-flop but lead into a flop that favors pfr and called a raise. I think we are facing KJ, KQ type hands that we beat (some with a flush draw) and some 10J…that beats us and is drawing us in
Turn: I think straights that get there will bet larger on turn to get a fold since they are worried about the flush. I think Kx of diamonds are likely here along with 2 pairs.
River: sizing skews range to flush that got there and some bluffs with straights. Can’t find many other hands that would bet on 3 streets from a thinking player.
