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  • binkley

    July 25, 2020 at 1:18 pm

    Preflop: QhTh is a standard open. I always find the min 3bet strange. Calling in position giving the pot odds, you can call extremely wide.

    Flop: With middle pair and given BB may be cbetting with entire range, this is a standard call.

    Turn: Board is now 10c Kh 2c 8h.

    BB checks. This check could be to give-up (X/fold), for pot control (X/call) or a trap (possible X/raise). Hands that would be played for pot control are weaker KX (KJ, K9), QQ, JJ. I don’t think a turn bet gets these hands to fold. Since I don’t think it’s getting better hands to fold, a turn bet isn’t working well as a bluff.

    How about betting for protection? What cards are truly bad for our hand? K doesn’t change anything, Q gives us 2 pair, any heart gives us a flush. Only non-heart A, non-heart J, and possibly a 9 is bad.

    I prefer a check. This avoids a check-raise where you may be forced to fold out your equity. This allows you to bluff catch BB on the river. A player capable of bluffing may see an opportunity to bluff after you check the turn.

    River: As played, you need to call $6.56 to win a pot of $27.90. You need to win 19% of the time to break even. If BB is bluffing just 1 out of 5 times, you are making a profitable call.

    BB could have been trapping with hands like KK, KT, 88, AT

    Maybe BB is overvaluing JT, T9. There are various missed FD and BDFD that could be turned into bluffs.

    I think this is a call.