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It’s a weird spot for them to be bluffing; you need to call 6.5 in a pot of about 40. Can’t believe they have any bluffs here. The question is what value hands are they betting that we beat and lose to?
The pre-flop 3-bet puts these river-value hands in their range: KK, TT, 88 and stuff like AK, AT, KT, QT, JTs, T9s , 22 if you think they 3-bet a button open with those hands. I’m guessing they continue their entire range on the flop after 3-betting pre and a flop of KT2 so that doesn’t reduce value hands for me.
On the turn where they check-call I generally take sets out here as the 8h makes the board wetter, so I would reduce the potential they have KK, TT, 88, 22 and start thinking these are the AK, AT, KT, QT, JTs, T9s hands.
It’s a curious check shove with any of these hands other than maybe KT if they want to keep your bluffs in play and think you will stab with those hands. At this point I would expect AK to just check call. So I guess it’s AT, KT, QT, JTs, T9s left in my brain for their range of check-raising. All of those involve the case T, so it makes me not totally trust my range definitions here. But if that’s all I have, there are 7 combos we lose to (AT, KT), 3 we chop with (QT), and 2 combos we beat (JdTd, Td9d). That’s 16% to win, 25% to chop. Getting 7:1 pot odds I think we have to call.
And if I’m wrong that they could have some bluffs or be value betting just random kings, then it makes it a very clear call.
Putting myself out here with this one; could be totally wrong.
