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Flop: Qd, 9d, Kh BB bets 3bb's into 7bb pot
I have the range advantage as I’ll have more sets and TPTK in my range than the typical SB calling range. Leading is non-standard here. I have trouble ranging opponents that lead. Value raises could be JT, KQ, K9, Q9. Some will lead with marginal hands: K8, Q8, 98. Maybe pair with a draw: KT, QT, T9. Or pure draws: Ad5d, 7d6d.
Discounting KK and QQ, the only hand I’m behind is JT. I raise to 9.36bb. BB calls.
Turn: (Qd, 9d, Kh) Ah
BB again leads for 11bb into 25.7bb pot.
This turn card is good for my range. If I had raised the flop with AA or AK, I now have either a set or top two pair. Yet BB continues to fire. This had me concerned. I’m still behind JT and ahead of any two pair. Even though another flush draw was added, I decided to just call and not raise. I already got value from draws and weaker hands and I don’t want to put more money in if I’m behind.
River: (Qd, 9d, Kh, Ah) 4d
BB bets 34bb into a pot of 47.7bb.
With the third diamond on the river, BB bets large. When the possible flush comes in, JT might use a blocking bet. But betting 71% pot feels too large to be a blocking bet. Two pair may also use a blocking bet line.
If BB made a flush on the river, then after my flop raise, they continued to bet with their draw on the turn. AhXh might take this line.
This was a tough spot.
Results:
Even though I lose to the straight and flush, I do beat some overplayed 2 pairs and pairs plus straight draws. I decided that 99 was too good to fold.
I call and win.
BB has Kd3c.
It seems most likely that BB wasn’t a thinking player and just overplayed flopped top pair. There is a very small chance that holding the Kd, BB decided to use that blocker to try to bluff river. With this runout, I’m only calling with the top of my range.
