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Pre-Flop
- They called your 3 bb open from the small blind.
- This should indicate strength but not super strength. I doubt AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT would allow the big blind to come along cheaply against a late position open. It seems very rare for monsters to flat call from the small blind instead of 3-betting. Most of those hands are likely not being slow-played in this type of cash game. KK is the largest candidate to the villain to have if they flat-call.
- Instead, I think the range is likely heavier in broadway cards and smaller pocket pairs.
Flop – Qd 9d Kh
- The villain leads 3 bb into 7 bb pot. You raise to ~9 bb and villain calls.
- This flop has all big cards, a flush draw, and a straight draw. I think it’s safe to assume that all small pocket pairs (22 – 88) wouldn’t play the hand this way. The broadway cards are very likely to play the hand this way.
- AK — top pair top kicker
- AdKd — top pair + nut flush draw
- AQ — 2nd pair top kicker — with AhQh, AdQd (not possible)
- AJ, AT — gut-shot
- KQ, K9, Q9 — two pair
- KJ, KT — top pair + gut-shot
- QJ, QT — 2nd pair + gut-shot
- JT — nut straight
- JdTd — nut straight + open ended straight flush draw
- JhTh — nut straight + backdoor flush draw
- 16 combos have you beat!!!
Turn – Qd 9d Kh Ah
- The villain leads 11 bb into 26 bb. You call.
- The ace of hearts simply adds more draws and connects with the villains range. The ace of hearts doesn’t add additional hands that are beating you. My best guess is that your hand is ahead and that you should raise on this street. If you get called, you will need to dodge between 9 – 13 outs on the river.
- My question is “how much” to make it, the pot size is pretty big after the flop so it makes the numbers tricky for 100 bb effective stack. Thus far, you have invested ~13 bb and have 87 bb left. If villain leads 11 bb, the effective stack is 76 bb.
- If you raise to 25 bb, you would be offering 14 bb to win about 62 bb. You have 51 bb left and a pot size of 76 bb if called.
- If you raise to 30 bb, you would be offering 19 bb to win about 67 bb.You have 46 bb left and a pot size of 86 bb if called.
- If you raise to 35 bb, you would be offering 24 bb to win about 72 bb. You have 41 bb left and a pot size of 96 bb if called.
- If you raise to 76 bb, you would be offering 65 bb to win about 113 bb.
River – Qd 9d Kh Ah 4d
- The diamond flush draw is more likely than the heart flush draw simply because of the order in which they appeared. The 4d is not the best card but definitely not the worst. In my opinion, the villains range is chasing more straight draws than flush draws so you definitely don’t want to see a river J or T.
- As played, the villain bet 11 bb on the turn and you called. On the river, they bet 34 bb into 47 bb. I think I call on the river the majority of the time. The value range that is beating me is simply not there to justify a fold.
- Worst case is that villain has JT. In this case, villain would have good reason to continue betting into you. You might have a draw or a made hand. Either way, the nuts should play it this way. With a set of 99 and all the straight draws missing, I’m gladly calling and hoping they don’t have the JT.
Call the river as played.
Raise the turn, next time.
