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hmmmmm tricky spot OOP with the nuts when the aggressor failed to cbet the turn. I love how poker can have multiple points of equilibrium – in spots like this, where I am asking myself “how can I EVER get called here?” I always try to put myself in the other position, and say “if I was bluffing here, what would my action and sizing be?” instead, and then find a way of making my opponent indifferent to it, or to exploit their known tendencies.
Against more aggressive opponents I’d be more inclined to XR with value and bluffs but most aggressive opponents might have chosen the turn for their second street of bluffing instead of this scary (for their range) river. So leading seems best. As you say, this runout smashes our range in the BB so we can reliably have 2pr+ here a lot. But how much of that value range benefits from a larger sizing and how much from a smaller sizing? And how effective would bluffs even be at a smaller sizing? And do we want to have two sizings here and to have to balance them both, or is one ok? What hands are calling ANY bet on this runout?
Feels like the calling ranges will be pretty inelastic to conventional sizing – most should know they are bluff-catchers. So what can we target with bigger bets with a 4-s8 on the board? I think we can discount sets by the turn action, maybe some 2pr combos call but again it seems like the hand we are really value-targeting with a bigger bet is a naked 7, or maybe a 2, although the 2 is functionally a bluff-catcher, like sets and 2pr on this runout – so lets make this look like a bluff. This would incline me to make a big overbet and get folds most of the time but occasionally get called by worse and sometimes even raised by a 7. But we should also be doing this with bluffs to avoid being exploitable by only ever overbetting value here. What bluffs would you choose to overbet here, if any?
That being said (lol) if the BTN has a 7 we are getting it in anyway so maybe Steve is right about using a small sizing to target the other sub-premium holdings like 2pr – the 7s will raise it anyway I expect so we don’t really have to strategize about how to get it in vs the second nuts. If you were in the BTN or SB what river sizing would you call with 2pr? And what size would be big enough as a bluff to make you fold a set on this runout?
