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I love this reply @Binkley …
Pot Size — 227
Flop — Kd2d2c
Villain bets 114 into 227
— bet size 50% — offer 33% break even
Hero raises to 419. The villain needs to call 305 to win 760
— bet size 40% — offer 28.5% break even
Villain raises to 724. The hero needs to call 305 to win 1370
— bet size 22% — offer 18.2% break even
There is 2239 effective left.
If Hero shoves for 2239. The villain needs to call 2239 to win 3609
— bet size 62% — offer 38.3% break even
Combinatorics
— Fullhouse —
- (KK, K2) represent only 3 + 6 = 9 combos
— Trips —
- (A2, Q2, J2, T2, 92, 82, 72, 62, 52, 42, 32) represents 8 combos each
— Two Pair —
- (AK, KQ, KJ, KT, K9, K8, K7, K6, K5, K4, K3) represents 12 combos each
- (AA, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33) represents 6 combos each
The most telling part of the action is the min-raise from our villain.
Why would they min-raise?
— they have the BEST hand
- why not offer good pot odds and try to build the pot. They know you’re drawing dead here. Their biggest fear is losing the fish on the line, not getting outdrawn on the turn or river.
— they have a STRONG hand
- if they have trips, min-raising isn’t that bad. It will build the pot, put their opponent in a weird spot where (fold, call, and raise) all have merit because it provides them with more info when you react to their min-raise. If you flat call the min-raise, then trips is likely good and they can comfortably bet the turn. If you raise the min-raise, then trips might be behind (especially with kicker problems) and they can possibly find a fold.
— they have a MEDIUM strength hand
- if they have a flush draw, min-raising offers them a possible free card on the turn. Ideally, they would want to be in position so they can check behind. Being out of position, min-raising with a flush draw would be pretty terrible.
- if they have two pair like K8, min-raising would also be terrible. It will get a free card some of the time but not often enough. It would be bloating the pot for an opponent who is getting good odds to call and has already shown on interest on this flop.
