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Hmmm.. sticky wicket. If we just check back river and lose we have a very playable 27.25 big blinds. Are there some hands that we perhaps win at showdown against; could they get too this spot with something like T8 suited; A2/4/5/6 suited? There is a chance we check back and win at show down (unlikely) that would give us about 43 bigs.
So let’s look at making a pot size shove here; if we shove and they fold we have 43 bigs. If we shove and they call, we are undoubtedly beat and down to 10.75 big blinds.
I guess what are hands that beat us that call preflop, flop and turn with, but won’t call river? JJ, TT, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, AJ, AT ?
At the end of the day, I think we have enough marginal showdown value PLUS enough likelihood that they call river with a hand that beats us, that I’m in check-back mode; keep my 27 bigs with a small chance I bump up to 43. I generally want to go for a stack here but don’t love this as a triple barrel spot.
