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I think if we’re bluffing here, we’re targeting a 9 or a sticky Q. I ran this in Flopzilla and gave them a pretty basic BB defense range (which includes all Kx suited and most Kx off suit except that real bottom). I think the real trick is does Kx flat that turn or raise? There are two flush draws on board. The worst case is if they flat all of their Kx, 9x, and flush draws, because now we’re in a bad place to bluff. I don’t think we’re getting Kx to fold with a shove at this stack depth.
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If we shove, our bluff needs to work at least a third of the time. If they’re very passive and they flat all of their Kx/Qx gutters/flush draws on the turn, then by the river only ~25% of their range is a 9 or worse. So then the question is really whether any sticky (and passive) Qx will fold to this shove. IF we can assume that QJ/Q10/Q9 came along until this river (a fairly big assumption) AND we think we can get QJ/Q10/Q9 to fold OR we think we can eliminate a lot of Kx/flush combos because they would have raised the turn, then I think this is a good bluff spot.
In the end, I’m probably bluffing here because I’m assuming the field raises that turn with lots of Kx/flush combos. But if this was a more passive opponent, I’m giving up and hoping I have some marginal showdown value.
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